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Analysis: Tomorrow's historically largest options expiration may amplify BTC volatility, with a potential rebound opportunity if BTC falls to $80,000-$82,000.
BlockBeats News, December 25th, data analyst Murphy stated that tomorrow, Bitcoin options worth around $23.6 billion will expire, marking the largest options expiry day in Bitcoin's history. After market makers unwind their related hedge positions, the previously established support and resistance levels based on the options structure will temporarily lose their effectiveness, potentially amplifying BTC's volatility in the short term until all participants reposition, forming a new market structure.
If during this period BTC retraces near the previous bottom (around $80,000-$82,000), it would present an opportunity for a "short-term rebound." The volatility during the structural vacuum phase may not necessarily signify the beginning of a new round of sharp decline. Furthermore, a "bullish divergence" signal has been observed on the small timeframe of "price and volume increment gradient."
The "price and volume increment gradient" measures the relative momentum change between BTC's price dynamics and real capital inflows. When the rate of capital outflow decreases compared to the speed of BTC price decline, it can be interpreted as a correction to the downtrend, indicating a demand for a rebound.
During the periods of 2024-2025 and 2021-2022, after four "bullish divergence" signals, BTC experienced various levels of rebound rallies or even trend reversals. However, considering the current overall market sentiment is still in a bearish corrective phase, the former scenario is more likely.
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