Arthur Hayes: Investors Underestimate Ongoing Risk of Middle East Conflict, AI Replacing Human Labor Could Trigger Credit Crisis

BlockBeats News, March 7th, Maelstrom co-founder Arthur Hayes said in an interview that he believes investors may be underestimating the current risk of escalating conflict or prolonged conflict. "I don't think the global markets have fully priced in the possibility of a long-term US-Iran war," he said. If energy supply is disrupted, a chain reaction could transmit through oil price spikes, inflationary pressures, and increased market volatility to the global economy.

At the same time, Hayes noted another powerful disruptive force—an AI-related crisis is also quietly brewing. He believes AI could rapidly reshape the labor market by replacing a large number of knowledge workers, including lawyers, bankers, accountants, and analysts. If this transformation happens quickly and households struggle to repay existing debt, it could lead to a widespread credit crisis.

Ultimately, Hayes believes the global financial system's consistent way of dealing with crises is by injecting liquidity. "Bitcoin is essentially just a liquidity smoke alarm," he said.