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From Betting on Trump to Wagering on the NFL: Prediction Markets Set to Hit All-Time Highs in 2025
BlockBeats News, December 26, 2025, has become the hottest year in the history of the prediction market development. With Polymarket and Kalshi emerging as industry-leading platforms, this track has heated up in terms of investment scale, media exposure, and valuation, gradually moving towards mainstream visibility.
As the 2026 U.S. midterm elections approach, the prediction market is seen as an important scene that could replicate the trading frenzy of the 2024 presidential election. The core question of market attention is: Can these platforms evolve from being "traffic and topic-driven" to scalable prediction infrastructure.
Capital accelerates entry, valuation rapidly rises:
Kalshi: Completed a $1 billion financing in November, with a valuation of $11 billion, led by Sequoia Capital and CapitalG; previously completed a $300 million Series D financing in October, with a valuation of $5 billion.
Polymarket: New York Stock Exchange parent company ICE invested $2 billion, after which CEO Shayne Coplan disclosed a valuation of around $9 billion.
Analysts point out that the core value of the prediction market lies not in short-term revenue, but in collective intelligence and globally distributed prediction data. Sportstensor CEO Leo Chan stated that such data is highly valuable to both financial institutions and non-trading users.
During the 2024 U.S. presidential election, prediction market trading volume surged, with a French Polymarket whale estimated by Chainalysis to have made a profit of $78.7 million betting on Trump's victory. Moving into 2025, the two major platforms accelerated their business collaborations:
Kalshi partnered with CNBC and CNN
Polymarket teamed up with Yahoo Finance and UFC
NHL signed multi-year licensing agreements with both platforms
As the midterm elections approach, the prediction market is expected to usher in a new round of outbreaks. However, the market consensus is that 2026 will be a watershed year to test the long-term value of the prediction market: whether they can truly prove their unique role in information discovery, risk pricing, and decision support will determine whether this track moves from a frenzy to maturity.
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