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Galaxy Analyst Warns Bitcoin Could Drop to $63K Due to Ownership Gap
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin faces a potential drop to $63,000 due to a significant gap in onchain ownership identified by Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research, Alex Thorn.
- The cryptocurrency is already trading 38% below its all-time high of $126,298 from October 2025.
- Historically, Bitcoin’s price has revisited the 200-week moving average during bear markets, which currently stands at approximately $58,000.
- As gold and other commodities outperform, Bitcoin struggles to maintain its reputation as a safe-haven asset.
- Despite the negative outlook, potential buying opportunities could emerge at or below the realized price of $56,000.
WEEX Crypto News, 2026-02-04 16:11:04
In a recent report, Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research, Alex Thorn, has issued a warning that has left the crypto community on edge. Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency, is at risk of seeing its value drop another 19% to reach a level of $63,000. This potential downturn is attributed to a significant gap in onchain ownership between $82,000 and $70,000. As Bitcoin contends with a market environment that lacks substantial demand, this ownership gap creates a precarious vacuum, heightening the likelihood of accelerated selling pressure.
The Implications of the $70K-$80K Ownership Gap
Alex Thorn’s analysis shows that the ownership gap between $70,000 and $80,000 is a critical factor in Bitcoin’s current volatility. This range, where there is limited meaningful demand, has left Bitcoin vulnerable to downward movements. The risk is particularly pronounced as Bitcoin is already trading 38% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,298. According to data from Galaxy Research, a significant 194,000 BTC last traded within the $77,000 to $79,500 range, indicative of shallow positions that may not hold up against market pressures.
The current ownership data reveals meaningful purchases occurred between $80,000 to $92,000 over the past four months. Nevertheless, these positive market activities have struggled to counteract the broader selling pressure from other price cohorts. Thorn highlights that Bitcoin’s path includes the potential for fluctuations around the historic max discount-to-ETF-cost-basis of -10%, presently around $76,000. The significant chance of Bitcoin trending towards the lower end of the supply gap, which is $70,000, is concerning.
This gap, combined with a high-volume of shallow positions, can potentially result in Bitcoin testing the realized price of $56,000 or below, aligning with the 200-week moving average of approximately $58,000, over the ensuing weeks and months.
Drawing from Historical Patterns
Bitcoin’s market behavior over the years offers insights into possible future movements. Traditionally, Bitcoin has not experienced a decline of 40% from its all-time high without also facing further downward pressure, extending to a 50% drop within three months, barring the year 2017. This historical trend places Bitcoin at the pivotal $63,000 mark that Thorn identifies as the next major point of attrition.
Historical data from Galaxy Research underscores that throughout previous bull markets—2013/14, 2017/18, 2019, and 2021—the 50-week moving average has served as a crucial support level. Once breached, market prices have a tendency to eventually revert to the 200-week moving average. This cyclical pattern renders the current 200-week moving average, situated at $58,000, an essential threshold to watch.
The Struggle Against Traditional Safe-Haven Assets
Since the dawn of the fourth quarter of 2025, Bitcoin has been unable to keep pace with conventional safe-haven assets such as gold and silver. This underperformance has not gone unnoticed within financial circles, as many investors shift towards commodities amidst heightened trade tensions and escalating concerns over global sovereign debt levels.
Bitcoin’s trajectory has diverged from its expected path of being a decentralized hedge against macroeconomic uncertainties. Instead, it has ceded ground to more established hard assets, reducing its allure to investors seeking stability during economic turbulence. This shift in narrative emphasizes the likening of Bitcoin’s price movements to those of volatile assets rather than stable, reliable stores of value.
Potential Opportunities Amidst Uncertainty
Despite this bleak outlook, there is a glimmer of hope. Galaxy Research postulates that 2026 has so far proven to be a year of unpredictability, making it challenging to affix a specific year-end price target for Bitcoin. Nonetheless, history suggests that potential buying opportunities could manifest at or slightly below pivotal price levels such as the realized price of $56,000 and the 200-week moving average of $58,000.
Prices hovering around or falling below these levels have historically been strong entry points for long-term investors. Such patterns were observed during previous bear-market bottoms, when prices would rebalance and eventually climb higher. This presents a strategic entry point for investors focused on a long-term vision, aligning their investments with these historically robust price zones.
Conclusion
As Bitcoin navigates the tricky territory of ownership gaps, market volatility, and comparative performance against traditional assets, the landscape remains complex and unpredictable. While the looming threat of further price declines poses immediate challenges, it also opens doors to strategic investment opportunities for those with a keen eye on Bitcoin’s historical trends and patterns.
Amidst the intricate dance of fluctuating prices and market sentiment, Bitcoin continues to demonstrate both resilience and volatility. The path forward demands careful consideration, shrewd analysis, and a deep understanding of both historical market movements and present-day dynamics. Only time will tell how these forces will converge to shape Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming months.
FAQ
What is the reason behind the predicted drop to $63,000 for Bitcoin?
The prediction is based on a significant ownership gap identified by Galaxy Digital between the $82,000 and $70,000 price range, creating a vacuum that could lead to heightened selling pressure.
Why is Bitcoin’s current price vulnerability significant?
Bitcoin’s current price vulnerability stems from lacking substantial demand between the $70,000 and $80,000 range. This gap has left Bitcoin susceptible to further declines.
How have historical patterns influenced the analysis of Bitcoin’s price movements?
Historical patterns reveal that Bitcoin typically experiences deeper drawdowns after an initial 40% decline from all-time highs, often pushing prices towards the 200-week moving average.
Why are traditional safe-haven assets outperforming Bitcoin?
Uncertainty over global economic conditions and sovereign debt concerns have driven investors towards established safe-haven assets like gold and silver, while Bitcoin has not kept pace despite its decentralized, borderless appeal.
What opportunities might arise if Bitcoin’s price continues to fall?
If Bitcoin’s price continues to fall towards the 200-week moving average or below the realized price, it could create favorable entry points for long-term investors, as seen in past market cycles.
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