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Next Week Outlook: U.S. August PPI, CPI Data Incoming
BlockBeats News, September 6th. This week, the financial markets saw dramatic changes, as the surprise weak U.S. nonfarm payroll data influenced an increase in the expectations of a Fed rate cut. Despite the market's anticipation of further rate cuts by the Fed, the U.S. dollar surprisingly remained strong, without experiencing a significant drop even after the disappointing nonfarm payroll data.
Several Fed watchers have stated that this U.S. nonfarm payroll data has confirmed a rate cut this month. Investors share the same view, boosting the probability of a rate cut at this month's meeting to 99%.
Monday, 23:00: U.S. New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectation for August;
Tuesday, 22:00: U.S. Nonfarm Employment Benchmark revision for 2025;
Wednesday, 20:30: U.S. August PPI data;
Wednesday, 22:00: U.S. July Wholesale Sales m/m;
Thursday, 20:30: U.S. August CPI data, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims up to September 6th;
Friday, 22:00: U.S. September 1-year Inflation Rate Expectation initial value, September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index initial value.
If August's PPI shows another unexpected increase, investors may dial back some of their more dovish expectations of a Fed rate cut. However, currently, the impact of tariffs on goods prices seems to be moderate. For the Fed, a potentially greater concern is the recent rebound in services sector inflation. According to the Cleveland Fed's real-time forecasting model, the overall August CPI year-over-year rate is expected to rise slightly by 0.1 percentage point to 2.8%, while the core CPI year-over-year rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.1%.
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