Fitch: prevede due tagli dei tassi della Fed nel primo semestre, disoccupazione al 4,6% quest'anno

By: theblockbeats.news|2026/01/08 22:46:02
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BlockBeats News, 8 gennaio, Fitch Ratings ha alzato le previsioni di crescita del PIL USA per il 2025 e la proiezione di crescita per il 2026. Questo aggiustamento è stato effettuato dopo aver incorporato i dati economici ritardati a causa dello shutdown governativo dell'anno scorso. Fitch prevede attualmente che il PIL crescerà del 2,1% nel 2025, superiore all'1,8% previsto nel suo Global Economic Outlook (GEO) di dicembre 2025. Allo stesso tempo, la previsione di crescita per il 2026 è stata rivista al rialzo dall'1,9% del rapporto precedente al 2,0%.

Dati i dati incompleti di ottobre, le recenti tendenze dell'inflazione CPI sono state difficili da interpretare. Si stima che il tasso di inflazione sia salito al 3,0% a dicembre 2025 (2,7% a novembre) e, a causa dell'impatto ritardato del passaggio delle tariffe, si prevede un ulteriore aumento nel 2026, raggiungendo una stima del 3,2% entro la fine dell'anno. Con il rallentamento della crescita dell'occupazione compensato dal calo della crescita della forza lavoro, si prevede che il tasso di disoccupazione medio nel 2026 sarà del 4,6%, vicino ai livelli recenti. Prevediamo che la Fed taglierà i tassi di interesse due volte nella prima metà del 2026, abbassando il tasso sui fondi federali (limite superiore) al 3,25%.

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