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Analysis: Epic Hodler Distribution Post-10/11 Sell-Off Leads to Significant Shift in BTC Cost Structure
BlockBeats News, December 22, on-chain data analyst Murphy regarded the 10.11 plunge as the starting point of this round of decline, analyzing a significant change in BTC's on-chain cost structure over the past 2 months as follows:
The most stacked BTC range is the $80,000 to $90,000 range, totaling 2.536 million BTC, an increase of 1.874 million BTC compared to 10.11, making it the strongest accumulation range so far. This is followed by the $90,000 to $100,000 range (an increase of 324,000 BTC) and the $100,000 to $110,000 range (an increase of 87,000 BTC);
With the current BTC price as the midpoint, there are a total of 6.168 million BTC in unrealized losses above, and 7.462 million BTC in unrealized gains below; excluding Satoshi Nakamoto's coins and BTC that has been lost long-term, the current situation is almost at a balanced chip structure with the upper and lower sides;
From the 10.11 plunge to December 20, the number of selling pressure below decreased by 1.33 million BTC, the number of trapped chips above with a cost above $110,000 decreased by 902,000 BTC, and the number of BTC in the $100,000 to $110,000 range did not decrease but increased by 87,000 BTC. In this round of decline, many top chip holders have sold off, while the rest of the chips have laid flat.
Profit-takers are selling off in large numbers, as the four-year cycle theory, macro uncertainty, quantum threats, and other market concerns are prompting long-term holders to engage in epic distribution. The largest amount of selling and selling volume is in the $60,000 to $70,000 range, mostly chips accumulated before the 2024 U.S. presidential election. When profits have significantly retreated, they are eager to cash out.
Currently, the $70,000 to $80,000 range is a relative "air pocket," with only 190,000 BTC remaining. Only a very small number of market participants hold BTC at this price. If it falls to this range, it may attract a significant amount of new liquidity, thereby providing support.
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