Goldman Sachs Previews Non-Farm Payrolls: Data Needs to Be "Substantially Surprising" to Shake Up Fed's Rate Cut Expectations for April
BlockBeats News, January 9th, Goldman Sachs stated that the U.S. non-farm payroll report for December 2025, set to be released Friday evening, is unlikely to substantially alter market expectations for the Fed's policy, unless there is a significant unexpected outcome, as current market pricing has solidly anchored on the path of easing policy starting in mid-year.
In a research report to clients, Goldman Sachs expects the non-farm payroll employment to increase by about 70,000, in line with general expectations. Despite unofficial market "whisper numbers" implying a slight upside risk, the bank believes that a result close to expectations would reinforce rather than disrupt the existing macroeconomic narrative.
The market is currently pricing in two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the Fed this year, with the first 25-basis-point cut expected around late April.
Goldman Sachs stated that labor data would need to show a "fairly dramatic" upside or downside surprise to significantly bring forward or push back this timing.
From a market perspective, Goldman Sachs views non-farm payroll data in the range of 70,000 to 100,000 as the most favorable outcome for the stock market, aligning with a scenario of continued economic expansion that neither reignites inflation concerns nor threatens the rate-cutting cycle. Such a result would support the view that the U.S. economy is gradually slowing rather than abruptly stalling.
In contrast, non-farm payroll data below 50,000 would be interpreted as below the level of job growth estimates needed to sustain economic stability, potentially unsettling investors by raising concerns about a sharp growth slowdown.
On the other extreme, Goldman Sachs stated that if the data exceeds 125,000, it may prompt the market to reassess the timing of the Fed's first rate cut, pushing back the expected rate cut to June. (FXStreet)
You may also like

Enso’s Recent Liquidation Sparks Market Volatility
Key Takeaways Enso experienced a dramatic $11.67 million in liquidations, with a significant 70.7% involving short positions, indicating…

South Korea’s Coinone Considers Stake Sale Amid Rising Coinbase Interest
Key Takeaways Coinone, a regulated cryptocurrency exchange in South Korea, is contemplating a significant stake sale as consolidation…

Could Europe Sell US Debt if a Greenland Deal Doesn’t Come Through?
Key Takeaways The geopolitical tensions involving Greenland could lead Europe to consider offloading US debt as a strategic…

Revolut Pursues Banking Expansion in Peru Amid Latin America Remittance Strategies
Key Takeaways Revolut seeks a banking license in Peru as part of its strategic expansion across Latin America,…

CLARITY Act Stalls: Why Has the Interest-Bearing Stablecoin Become a Bank’s “Thorn in the Side”?
Key Takeaways The debate surrounding the CLARITY Act is primarily focused on interest-bearing stablecoins and their implications for…

South Korea considers changing the one-bank rule for crypto exchanges: An In-depth Review
Key Takeaways: South Korea is examining the current “one exchange–one bank” model amidst concerns of market concentration, potentially…

Hungary and Portugal Block Polymarket Prediction Market Amid European Crackdowns
Key Takeaways: Hungary and Portugal have moved to restrict access to Polymarket, increasing regulatory pressures on crypto-based prediction…

Hong Kong Association Highlights Risks in Crypto Licensing Framework
Key Takeaways The Hong Kong Securities & Futures Professionals Association (HKSFPA) warns that new crypto licensing may lead…

India Central Bank Suggests BRICS CBDC Link-Up As Members Explore Alternatives to Dollar Rails
Key Takeaways India’s central bank proposes a CBDC connectivity initiative for the upcoming 2026 BRICS summit. This move…

Venezuelan Man Faces 20 Years for Alleged $1B Crypto Money Laundering Scheme
Key Takeaways Jorge Figueira, a Venezuelan national, is accused of operating a complex international money-laundering network using cryptocurrency.…

Anchorage Digital Prepares for IPO with Significant $400M Fundraise
Key Takeaways Anchorage Digital is actively seeking to raise $200 million to $400 million in new funding, with…

The opening price is expected to drop by 75%, perhaps the first project to be rug pulled this year.

Traveling? ‘Evil Twin’ WiFi networks can steal crypto passwords
Key Takeaways “Evil Twin” WiFi attacks occur when hackers mimic legitimate WiFi networks to steal sensitive user data.…

Senate Judiciary Leaders Push for Revisions in Crypto Bill
Key Takeaways Senate Judiciary chair Charles Grassley and top Democrat Richard Durbin express concerns about the crypto market…

Predicting the market does not predict the truth; it simply rewards those who guess right

Trump Waves Hand, Stirs Venezuela's Game Hurricane

The Genius Stopping Law: Why Did Coinbase Backpedal at the Eleventh Hour?

Fact Check: How Much Money Did the University of Chicago Lose in its Crypto Investment?
Enso’s Recent Liquidation Sparks Market Volatility
Key Takeaways Enso experienced a dramatic $11.67 million in liquidations, with a significant 70.7% involving short positions, indicating…
South Korea’s Coinone Considers Stake Sale Amid Rising Coinbase Interest
Key Takeaways Coinone, a regulated cryptocurrency exchange in South Korea, is contemplating a significant stake sale as consolidation…
Could Europe Sell US Debt if a Greenland Deal Doesn’t Come Through?
Key Takeaways The geopolitical tensions involving Greenland could lead Europe to consider offloading US debt as a strategic…
Revolut Pursues Banking Expansion in Peru Amid Latin America Remittance Strategies
Key Takeaways Revolut seeks a banking license in Peru as part of its strategic expansion across Latin America,…
CLARITY Act Stalls: Why Has the Interest-Bearing Stablecoin Become a Bank’s “Thorn in the Side”?
Key Takeaways The debate surrounding the CLARITY Act is primarily focused on interest-bearing stablecoins and their implications for…
South Korea considers changing the one-bank rule for crypto exchanges: An In-depth Review
Key Takeaways: South Korea is examining the current “one exchange–one bank” model amidst concerns of market concentration, potentially…