The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in March is 95.3%, while the probability of a rate cut is only 4.7%

By: rootdata|2026/03/06 22:43:30

According to Jinshi reports, before the non-farm data was released, based on CME's "Fed Watch," the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points by March is 4.7%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 95.3%. By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 14%, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 85.5%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is 0.5%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 31.5%.

-- Price

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