US Data Centers Face 32GW Power Shortfall by 2028

According to a report by Morgan Stanley, from 2026 to 2028, US data centers are expected to face a net power shortfall of approximately 34%, equivalent to 32GW. The power bottleneck may shift from chip shortages to electricity shortages, primarily affecting the supply chains of ASICs, storage, optical modules, power management, and analog chips. The report notes that Nvidia and Broadcom have reduced their dependence on the US market due to global expansion, and their 2027 performance forecasts will not be materially affected. However, ASICs are sensitive to power resources, and storage and optical products are vulnerable to delays in data center projects, facing risks of order postponements, cancellations, and inventory adjustments. Oracle's "Project Lighthouse" in Wisconsin, with a capacity of 1.3GW, has become a real reflection of this risk, with full power supply potentially delayed until October 2028, and in a pessimistic scenario, even until spring 2029. The report anticipates that from 2026 to 2028, the US will add approximately 19GW of gas turbine and engine capacity, with Bloom Energy's fuel cells expected to contribute around 6GW. Nuclear power and the transformation of cryptocurrency mining sites could also provide supplementary power, but overall, it will still be insufficient to fill the power gap. Overseas expansion is constrained by approvals and geopolitical factors, making it difficult to quickly shift demand.

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