An Ice Cream Vendor Bets on the Weather to Pay His Rent

Jason Jiang, 37, a former banker, runs the 28wishes shop in Los Angeles with his brother James. Since April, they have been betting $20 a day on Kalshi, a predictive markets app, wagering on cold spells in Southern California. The shop loses about 20% of its revenue when the temperature drops below 21 °C. By betting on the cold, they hope to offset this loss. Jason Jiang claims to earn up to $1,500 a month on Kalshi, with peaks of $800 in a single day. These earnings cover nearly 43% of their monthly rent of $3,500. For their predictions, they rely on weather forecasts and experts they follow on social media. Kalshi, founded in 2021, allows betting on various events, including the weather, and has over 5 million active monthly users. The platform is in discussions for a fundraising round valued at $40 billion.

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