Analysis: After Bitcoin failed to break through the 200-day moving average, it fell back below $81,000, raising market concerns based on historical trends

btc-42">Bitcoin approached the critical 200-day simple moving average (SMA, around $83,300) on Wednesday but failed to achieve a valid breakout, subsequently falling back below $81,000.

Meanwhile, the overall cryptocurrency market weakened, with the CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Index dropping over 2% in the past 24 hours, making it the weakest performer among major sectors. The market generally views the 200-day moving average as an important indicator for measuring long-term trends. If BTC can hold above this level, it will further reinforce the market narrative that "the bear market ended when it fell below $63,000 in February this year, and a new bull market has begun." However, a similar situation occurred in March 2022, when Bitcoin briefly broke through and tested the 200-day moving average, only to eventually fall to around $20,000 in June of the same year, leading some analysts to warn of the risk of a "false breakout."

Analytical firm Marex stated that whether BTC can continue to rise depends on three major factors: whether spot funds continue to chase prices, whether exchange supply continues to tighten, and whether the derivatives market remains healthy and not overheated. If all three factors align, Bitcoin may quickly open up space towards the $85,000 range.

FxPro Chief Market Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich pointed out that this round of correction seems more like a brief pause in the upward process rather than the end of the trend. However, he also reminded that the daily RSI had previously entered the overbought zone, and similar past situations were accompanied by significant corrections. Additionally, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has fallen from a high of 4.46% at the beginning of the month to 4.32%, which is seen as a potential positive factor for risk assets.