Analysis: Bitcoin's short-term turnover has significantly cooled down, and the market is near the bottom

Analyst Murphy stated that by observing the "short-term capital on-chain activity weight" (i.e., the proportion of the dollar value represented by short-term chip turnover) as an on-chain indicator, we can assess the current BTC market status. This indicator reflects the latest short-term trading behaviors such as speculation, arbitrage, profit-taking, or panic selling. Currently, this weight has dropped to historically low levels, appearing only in the bottom regions of bear markets over the past 15 years, indicating a significant cooling of short-term turnover, with economic value shifting towards long-term chip accumulation. The market is characterized by low volatility, consolidation, or clear bottom features.

The analyst judges that based on this, the current market may be in one of three stages: bear market bottom; secondary bottom, which may still have one last drop; or consolidation before the bull market starts. However, under rational judgment, the pre-bull consolidation can be temporarily ruled out. It is currently not recommended to fully bet on a single scenario; a diversified position strategy is advised to cope with different outcomes, as the relative position of the long-term trend has indicated that Bitcoin is near the bottom.