Bitcoin Could Still Plunge to $40,000 According to Michael Terpin

Has bitcoin really hit its low point, or is the market about to face another wave of capitulation? While investors hope to see the correction lose steam, Michael Terpin, a historical figure in the crypto ecosystem and author of Bitcoin Supercycle, cools expectations. According to him, the purge is far from over: BTC could still retreat to between $40,000 and $50,000 before entering a new bullish cycle. This projection is based on his model of the "Four Seasons of Bitcoin", built around the rhythm of halvings.

In brief

• In light of the current market correction, historical investor Michael Terpin anticipates a final phase of capitulation bringing Bitcoin's price back to the $40,000 to $50,000 range.
• Based on the four-year halving cycle calendar model, this temporal purge is expected to reach its lowest point around early October.
• Despite this short-term bearish pressure, the law of diminishing returns and the strategic wait-and-see approach of institutional investors are paving the way for a healthy market recovery.
• In the longer term, the fundamental trajectory of the asset remains deeply bullish, aiming for a new peak between $180,000 and $300,000 by 2029.

At the heart of Michael Terpin's thesis is the strict adherence to the four-year cycle tied to Bitcoin's halving, a mechanism that halves the rewards for mining specialists, causing periodic supply shocks. The expert firmly rejects speculation that an early low point has already been reached after just a few weeks of decline.

When asked about the temporal structure of market phases, Terpin stated: "Hoping that a downturn lasts only six weeks is absurd." The temporal and historical analysis thus relies on several key benchmarks:

• The historical duration of recessions: bear market phases following bull runs systematically span a period of 9 to 11 months;
• The precedent of the 2021-2022 cycle: after reaching a peak on November 10, 2021, the price hit its absolute low exactly one year later, on November 10, 2022, during the FTX bankruptcy;
• The deadline for final capitulation: market lows generally occur 12 months after the peak, placing the timeframe for ultimate capitulation around early October.

According to this calendar mechanism, the market has not yet reached the ultimate stage of seller exhaustion. The head of Transform Ventures anticipates a "final pain zone" likely to eject the most impatient investors from the market. This exact timing corresponds to the period when the market completes its purge phase before being able to rebuild solid foundations for the next cycle.

In terms of price levels and market structure, Michael Terpin's analysis is based on the law of diminishing returns and losses. As Bitcoin's market capitalization matures, the amplitude of percentage corrections decreases with each cycle compared to historical declines of 80% to 85%. "Each cycle presents diminishing returns and losses," explains Michael Terpin. "In my book Bitcoin Supercycle, I predicted a drop of 60% to 70% from the peak, with my best estimate around 66%, or about $42,000."

The investor is now reassessing his target range for the market low between $39,000 and $55,000, while warning that a temporary capitulation phase could bring the price back to the lower end of the $40,000 range.

Regarding the attitude of major institutional players, Terpin believes that they will not blindly try to guess the exact bottom. Large capital will wait for a clear confirmation of the exhaustion of selling pressure before proceeding with aggressive accumulations. This phase of marked uncertainty and volatility will precede the transition into Bitcoin's sixth cycle, during which the weakest hands will relinquish their tokens.

Despite the severity of the short-term correction scenario, the long-term vision developed by the author of Bitcoin Supercycle remains deeply optimistic. Terpin adopts a very clear positioning in financial markets by stating he is "a short-term seller but a long-term buyer". For the expert, the current purge phase is merely the necessary transition before the onset of the next major expansion phase. He believes that the four-year cycle will retain its relevance for the next twenty years before gradually stabilizing into a sustainable supercycle.

For the upcoming cycle extending until 2029, the investor's numerical projections outline a very significant upside potential. In a conservative scenario, Terpin anticipates a market peak around $180,000, while a more pronounced bullish acceleration could propel the leading cryptocurrency to the $300,000 threshold. Looking even further ahead, the analysis even considers the possibility of reaching the million-dollar mark by 2033, driven by programmed scarcity and global adoption.

The perspective outlined by Michael Terpin invites investors to a strategic rigor based on patience and risk management. While a drop below $50,000 down to the $40,000 threshold constitutes a challenging scenario for the overall market sentiment, it would fit perfectly within Bitcoin's historical structure.

Between the strict timing of the halving schedule and the strategic wait-and-see approach of institutions, the coming months will impose a clear distinction between short-term fluctuations and the fundamental value of the asset. For savvy investors, the challenge will not be to succumb to the prevailing panic but to assess whether this ultimate pain point represents the last accumulation opportunity before the next expansion movement begins.