Bitcoin Faces Fourfold Risk Pressure in Its Rebound

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has risen to about 4.7%, nearing the upper limit of the five-year range, leading to tighter financial conditions, increased financing costs, and higher asset discount rates, which add pressure to risk assets. The futures market estimates the probability of a rate hike at the next Federal Reserve meeting to be around 38%, but economists generally believe that interest rates will remain unchanged. Bitcoin has rebounded about 11% from its June low of approximately $59,000 to nearly $66,000, but has now fallen back to around $64,300. The market faces four potential risks: first, a significant compression of volatility, with actual volatility in July dropping by 31%, indicating the possibility of sharp market movements ahead; second, weak demand in the U.S. spot market, which has maintained a discount trading for the past two and a half months, showing no sustained inflow of funds; third, insufficient buying liquidity in the market, with stablecoins continuing to flow out of exchanges and new fund activity nearing annual lows; fourth, investors realizing losses, with some positions opting to exit, putting pressure on prices. Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy, has not continued to make large-scale Bitcoin purchases recently but has published an article recommending 38 books to build a theoretical framework for Bitcoin as a result of long-term financial evolution. The market remains in a critical observation phase, requiring attention to changes in liquidity, recovery of U.S. demand, and improvements in investor behavior.