Bitcoin may rebound if ETF inflows return, Treasury yields stabilize

Wintermute stated that the crypto market has lost momentum from capital inflows, while equities have maintained gains due to corporate earnings. The firm identified two conditions for a positive crypto outlook: stabilization in U.S. Treasury yields and a return to net inflows into spot ETFs. Until these conditions are met, Bitcoin may continue to act as a high-beta asset, sensitive to stock market movements. Wintermute advised caution against chasing rallies in altcoins with weak fundamentals during any rebound. The firm retains a long-term positive view, noting that market interest in BTC is below long-term trend levels and the current upcycle is still in its early stages, allowing for potential further gains. Key variables this week include the U.S. September Consumer Price Index, as rising energy prices could influence core inflation and the interest-rate outlook. Additionally, earnings reports from financial institutions and AI-related companies will serve as important indicators for the stock market and global economy.

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