Bitcoin signals potential cycle shift, analyst says

Bitcoin's recent rally may indicate the beginning of a new cycle, according to analyst Jamie Coutts. He noted that BTC/USD has broken above its previous downtrend line on the daily chart. Adjusted for declining volatility, this two-day move ranks as the fifth-strongest since 2018. Coutts highlighted that major bottoms in 2018 and 2019 were followed by significant gains after volatility decreased, although the current rally's volatility-adjusted strength is stronger. Historical data shows BTC rose over 70% of the time after 30, 90, and 180 days following abrupt price swings, with median returns exceeding those during typical periods. Coutts also pointed to the macro backdrop, mentioning that after the U.S. Treasury's announcement to buy long-term government bonds, BTC began to price in potential liquidity expansion. In the short term, he cautioned that a heavy supply zone in the low-$80,000 range could limit further gains. Ultimately, Coutts believes BTC is reflecting global liquidity trends, suggesting the surge signals a medium- to long-term cycle shift rather than a mere technical rebound.

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