China's Core Open Source Large Model ARR Estimated at $6-8 Billion

The total ARR of China's open source large models is approximately $10-15 billion, with the core LLM revenue estimated at $6-8 billion after excluding ByteDance and Seedance. Growth has not relied on price wars; after DeepSeek raised prices by about 3-12 times, usage still increased, and the average price of Zhipu API rose by 101%, while token usage has increased over 40 times this year. The best estimate for overseas revenue is approximately $2 billion. Zhipu's MaaS ARR increased from about $250 million in March to an annualized monthly rate of about $1.6 billion in August and an annualized weekly rate of $2 billion, with August revenue exceeding its API revenue for the first half of the year; the API gross margin is 24.6%, and the inference cost per token has decreased by 80%. MiniMax's ARR rose from about $100 million in December 2025 to over $800 million on an annualized weekly basis in August 2026, with B2B accounting for about 80%. Kimi's ARR increased from about $100 million in March to about $300 million in mid-June. DeepSeek's revenue from January to July was about $70 million, with the latest ARR estimated at about $1.2 billion. ByteDance's annualized AI revenue is about $4 billion, of which Seedance accounts for about $2 billion.

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