Consolidation in Ranges and Rate Reevaluation: Trader Assesses Bitcoin and Ethereum Movement Scenarios

• Bitcoin is trapped in the range of $77,000-$80,000.
• Ethereum has returned to the range after a false breakout above $2,550.
• DXY has executed a reversal scenario and approached the zone of 99.60-99.70.
• NFP will be the main macro trigger of the week.

Disclaimer: This material is not financial advice or a call to action. The analysis presented is the private opinion of its author. Incrypted is not responsible for the investment decisions of readers.

Market Analysis - Consolidation in Ranges, False Breakouts, and Rate Reevaluation Before NFP

The past five-day period has transitioned the market from a phase of vertical rally to a mode of local accumulation. The expected pullback after the assault on historical levels did not turn into a deep correction: prices have stalled in the upper ranges, leaving unfilled daily gaps far below.

The market has taken a pause, digesting the hawkish rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve at Jackson Hole and preparing for a key employment week in the US.

Bitcoin - Trapped Between $77,000-$80,000 and Two Liquidity Poles

For Bitcoin, the market has partially realized the previous plan: it reached last week's high (PWH), took the 4H FVG from above, and gave a pullback, but got stuck at $76,649, not reaching the broad daily imbalance of $74,000-$76,000.

As a result, quotes have transitioned into sideways consolidation at $77,000-$80,000.

Above, price movement is limited by PWH at $81,500, the level of $82,828.7, and the Daily FVG extending to $84,000+. Below, a dense shelf of equal lows (EQL) has formed around $77,000 and last week's low (PWL) at $76,649.

Deep zones of interest remain untouched: Daily FVG $73,881-$76,000, 0.5 Fibo D at $71,996.9, and the historical milestone of $69,198.7-$70,000.

With a neutral 4H RSI around 50, opening trades within the corridor is pointless - the key factor will be the reaction to the first liquidity removal.

Scenario A - Removal of Both Sides of the Range

A push to PWH $81,500 with a fixation of buyer weakness, a reversal under the EQL shelf with a breach of PWL $76,649 down to $76,000, and only after a full clearing of the order book - a true impulse through $82,828.7.
Four-hour chart BTC/USDT.P. Data: TradingView.

Scenario B - False Breakout and Deep Unloading

A breakout of PWH and entry into Daily FVG $82,828-$84,000, where demand is exhausted. Without a hold above $82,828.7 on retest, the market goes into a full correction to 0.5 Fibo D at $71,996.9 and lower unfilled gaps.
Four-hour chart BTC/USDT.P. Data: TradingView.

Scenario C - Removal of Lows and Continuation of Rally

An initial drop below PWL $76,649 to take out stops below EQL with an immediate V-shaped return into the range.

This confirms the strength of the limit buyer and triggers a wave of growth through PWH straight to $86,000.
Four-hour chart BTC/USDT.P. Data: TradingView.

Ethereum - False Breakout Above $2,550 and Vacuum Below

Ethereum has entered the target imbalance of $2550-$2600, peaking at $2566.40, but failed to hold these levels.

The movement turned out to be a manipulative spike that returned the price back inside the range of $2384.20-$2566.40, closing the week at $2437.

Above the market hangs the 4H FVG of $2440-$2470. Until this area is filled and confirmed as support, the upward trend is on pause.

Above lie the PWH at $2566.40 and the zone above $2600. Below, the nearest support is the PWL at $2384.20 and the 4H FVG of $2350-$2384.

The main structural risk is a price gap of $500 in the range of $1920-$2220, with the midpoint at $2080, which remains completely empty.

Scenario A - Filling the FVG and Momentum

Trading within the 4H FVG of $2440-$2470, holding it as support, and breaking through the PWH of $2566.40 to targets above $2600.

A confident hold is needed, not just a one-time spike.
Four-hour chart ETH/USDT.P. Data: TradingView.

Scenario B - Liquidity Pullback Down

A rebound from $2470 and a dip below the PWL of $2384.20 into the 4H FVG of $2350-$2384 to flush out early long positions and form a confirmed entry point.
Four-hour chart ETH/USDT.P. Data: TradingView.

Scenario C - Short Squeeze and Range Break

A false breakout above $2566.40 to $2600-$2620, collecting stop losses from shorts and enticing breakout positions, followed by a sharp reversal and a move through the entire range down to $2300.
Four-hour chart ETH/USDT.P. Data: TradingView.

Fundamental Triggers of the Week:

• Futures repricing of the Fed's rate. Hawkish statements from Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole shifted the balance: the probability of maintaining high rates at the September 16 meeting has sharply increased. This factor acts as a fundamental barrier from above for risk assets;
• A week of U.S. labor market data with NFP on Friday. Statistics on job openings (JOLTS), the ADP report, and Friday's data on non-farm employment in the U.S. will be the main drivers of volatility. Strong numbers will support a hawkish stance from the regulator, while weak numbers will rekindle hopes for easing;
• Geopolitical backdrop. The exchange of blows between the U.S. and Iran has been partially absorbed by the market, but the risk of sudden escalation around the Strait of Hormuz retains the potential for sharp position liquidations.

Summary and Trading Plan

Trading from the middle of the range is the least profitable tactic. For both assets, it is preferable to wait for a breakout of one of the external boundaries and work exclusively based on confirmed reactions.

Unclosed daily imbalances from below remain medium-term targets, where quality entry points for positional longs will form.

Are you planning to work from local 4H zones within the current ranges, or do you maintain patience until a full test of the lower daily imbalances?

Dollar Index - Working Out the Reversal Scenario, Assaulting the Zone of 99.60-99.70 and Preparing for the NFP Session

Retrospective and Reasons for Working Out

The past five days have strictly followed a bullish scenario: The Dollar Index (DXY) has formed a solid base within the lower 4H FVG of 98.80-99.30, rebounding from the PWL of 98.762 and delivering a powerful V-shaped impulse, returning to last month's minimum (PML) of 99.692 and updating the weekly maximum at PWH of 99.726.

Fundamental Drivers of the Reversal:

• Sticky Core PCE and stagflation signals on Wednesday. Inflation for expenses has stagnated at 3.3%, while the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has slowed to 1.5%, confirming that price pressures have not disappeared;
• Resilient labor market on Thursday. Initial jobless claims came in better than expected at 203,000 versus a forecast of 208,000;
• Hawkish tone from the Fed at Jackson Hole. Statements about a firm target of 2% and the Fed's readiness to "do its job" provoked a sharp repricing of rate futures for the September 16 meeting. The probability of maintaining tight conditions rose from 34.1% to 59.9%, providing a strong impulse to the dollar.

Technical Picture
The Dollar Index has emerged from oversold conditions: the 4H RSI has risen to around 66. DXY has approached the key resistance level of PML 99.692.

A fresh unclosed 4H FVG of 99.25-99.40 remains under the upward movement. Above, the main magnet for continuing the rally is the wide imbalance of the 4H FVG in the area of 100.80-101.20 and the strategic maximum PMH of 101.640.

Key Structural Levels:

• PMH 101.640 - global monthly maximum;
• PWH 99.726 - fresh weekly maximum acting as a local barrier;
• PML 99.692 - broken monthly level currently testing supply;
• PWL 98.762 - protected weekly minimum and base of the previous reversal;
• 4H FVG zones: support from below - 99.25-99.40 and deep 98.60-98.80; resistance from above - 100.80-101.20.

Current Trading Scenarios

Scenario A - Pullback to Support, Consolidation, and Breakout to 100.80+

The index takes a local pause near PWH 99.726, corrects into the fresh 4H FVG of 99.25-99.40 for liquidity replenishment, finds support there, and develops a new wave of growth with a breakout above 99.726 and an exit into the upper imbalance zone of 100.80-101.20.
DXY Index Chart. Data: TradingView.

Scenario B - False Break of PWH and Local Consolidation

The price makes an impulsive spike above 99.726, collects sellers' stops, but fails to hold above and returns to the range of 99.25-99.70, getting stuck in sideways trading until Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report.
DXY Index Chart. Data: TradingView.

Scenario C - Taking Out the Maximum and Deep Breakdown to Lower Lows

A manipulative breakout above PWH 99.726 with a sharp rejection of sellers, piercing through the support of the 4H FVG of 99.25-99.40, and accelerating the decline back to PWL 98.762 with the potential to update the bottom.
DXY Index Chart. Data: TradingView.

News Triggers of the Week

• Tuesday, September 1 - JOLTS job openings, 15:30; final manufacturing PMI, 16:45; ISM manufacturing index, 17:00;
• Wednesday, September 2 - ADP employment change, 15:15; crude oil inventories, 17:30;
• Thursday, September 3 - initial jobless claims, 15:30; services PMI, 16:45; ISM services index, 17:00;
• Friday, September 4, 15:30 - official US labor market report: NFP, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings.

Sentiment and Tactics
DXY has transitioned from a free-fall phase to an upward structure. The realization of Scenario A will exert additional pressure on risk assets and serve as a catalyst for unloading unclosed daily imbalances in Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Action Plan: closely monitor the index's behavior at the support test of 99.25-99.40. If the dollar holds this zone and breaks above 99.726, the priority shifts towards profit protection and seeking points for continuation of correction in cryptocurrency pairs.