Glassnode Identifies Conditions for a New Bitcoin Crash

• Glassnode has not confirmed the bottom for Bitcoin and has reported the risk of a new decline.
• According to analysts, the asset did not react to positive macro data, including the decrease in inflation in the U.S.
• They identified levels that will determine the next movement.

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Bitcoin remains squeezed between key levels of realized price following the release of new inflation data in the U.S. Against the backdrop of a weak reaction from the crypto market to macroeconomic news, minimal spot volumes, and a lack of sustained demand, Glassnode analysts believe that the bottom of the current decline has not yet been confirmed.

Experts estimate that confirmation of an improvement in the situation will be Bitcoin holding above $68,700 amid rising volumes and further inflows into ETFs. Conversely, a drop below $58,500 in a thin order book and high leverage will increase the risk of accelerated selling.

U.S. Inflation Failed to Support Bitcoin

On August 12, 2026, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics published inflation data for July. The CPI was 3.4%, marking the lowest value in the last four months and continuing the decline since May.

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Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, was 2.5% year-on-year. Glassnode noted that after the data release, Bitcoin barely reacted to the positive macroeconomic signal.

, said Glassnode analyst Frédéric Thissen.

After the statistics were released, the first cryptocurrency briefly rose but later returned to lower values: its price dropped from approximately $64,500 to $64,000. Meanwhile, the market is assessing how the new inflation data may impact the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates in September.

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Currently, the Fed's rate stands at 3.5-3.75%. The regulator kept it unchanged at the FOMC meeting on July 29, continuing the policy it has maintained since December 2025. Following the meeting, the probability of a rate hike in September increased.

An additional factor of uncertainty has been the position of Fed Board member Lisa Cook. She stated that she is willing to support a rate hike if inflation does not continue to decrease. In her assessment, the current level of inflation remains too high, and one month of decline is insufficient to draw conclusions about a sustainable trend.

Glassnode: Sellers are Exhausted, but Buyers are Insufficient

According to Glassnode, the current structure of Bitcoin remains contradictory. On one hand, sellers are gradually losing strength. On the other hand, buyers are not yet demonstrating sufficient demand to form a sustainable recovery. Infographic Incrypted.

The asset's price is between two important levels:

• $63,000 --- median realized price;
• $68,700 --- average purchase price of coins by short-term holders.

Bitcoin has been in this range for nearly three months. A return above $68,700, according to analysts, would be an important signal of recovery, especially with an increase in trading activity. Conversely, a loss of the $63,000 level would leave significantly less structural support until the June lows.

The situation is complicated by record-low activity in the spot market. Bitcoin trading volume on spot exchanges has dropped to its lowest level since the start of relevant statistics in 2019. Even excluding Binance, the figure has approached the lows of the 2023 bear market.

According to Glassnode, this indicates extremely low investor participation. In such a thin market, even a relatively small influx of buyers or sellers can cause a disproportionately strong price movement.

Sellers Are Weakening, but Historical Bottom Signal Is Still Lacking
Some on-chain metrics are already approaching zones that in the past corresponded to the end of bear markets. The share of Bitcoin supply in unrealized profit has dropped to about half of the circulating coins. Infographic Incrypted.

At the same time, the Seller Exhaustion Constant, which combines the share of supply in profit with volatility and is used to determine seller exhaustion, is near the lows of the current cycle. However, as emphasized by Glassnode, it has not yet reached levels characteristic of the final bottom formation in previous bear markets.

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Another indication of selling pressure remains the adjusted SOPR (Sale Price to Purchase Price Ratio for significant on-chain transactions). Since the October peak, it has approached the 1 mark, which corresponds to the breakeven level, nine times, and each time sellers have used the recovery to exit positions.

<>, analysts at Glassnode note.

Separately, the weakness of spot demand is indicated by exchange reserves. It was previously reported that Bitcoin reserves on Binance reached a six-month high of about 667,500 BTC. At the same time, coins continue to flow onto exchanges, although the inflow rate is already significantly lower than the June peak.

ETFs Have Revived Inflows, but the Market Is Still Not Convinced of a Rally
A more positive factor has been the American spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Following a weak employment report in the U.S., inflows into these instruments have revived: over the week, they attracted a total of about $1.1 billion, according to analysts at Wintermute.

Wintermute noted that demand through ETFs has indeed revived, but there is still insufficient data to speak of a sustained change in market sentiment.

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Glassnode also recorded a positive trend in flows, but deemed it insufficient. Net inflows to Bitcoin ETFs turned positive at the end of July for the first time in several months, but remain only a small fraction of previous accumulation waves, and the total position is still significantly lower than the October peak.

"There are no buyers," analysts at Glassnode summarize the situation, pointing to minimal ETF inflows and continued coin inflows to exchanges.

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin is also lagging behind U.S. stocks. On August 7, the U.S. stock index set a new all-time high and remains near it, while the first cryptocurrency showed weaker dynamics throughout the summer.

Glassnode explains this discrepancy by the flow of capital into risk assets. Consumer sentiment in the U.S. remains among the weakest in the last decade; however, households are shifting some funds from cash into assets amid expectations of rising living costs and economic weakening. The main beneficiary of this movement has been the stock market, largely due to deals surrounding AI.

Bitcoin has yet to receive a similar influx of capital.

Leverage Rises, Though Spot Demand Remains Weak

Unlike the spot market, derivatives participants are actively building long positions. On Hyperliquid, the whale portfolio has remained purely long every day since mid-March. The peak of such positions occurred in mid-July when Bitcoin was at the upper boundary of the local range. Incrypted Infographic.

At the same time, open interest in futures has already exceeded the volume of futures trading for an entire day. This brings the figure closer to the September record, while in 2019-2020, a similar volume of positions turned over approximately three times a day.

According to Glassnode, this situation creates a mechanical risk for the market: a large number of open positions, especially long ones, could amplify the movement in the event of a price drop, as liquidations will find it harder to locate sufficient counter spot demand.

Additional pressure is created by the order book. The volume of pending buy orders, which formed the basis of the summer trading range, has decreased by about a third since early July. In the event of a breakout of the range, a move to the June minimum near $58,500 could occur in a significantly less deep market.

Glassnode identifies the $58,500 level as the key lower boundary of the current range, while $68,700 remains the main resistance.

Analysts' Forecasts Diverge

The current market structure has formed several different scenarios for Bitcoin.

CryptoQuant analysts believe that the asset could form a local peak in the range of $66,317-$68,965. If the downward trend continues, they identify the next target as $51,336.

At the same time, CryptoQuant recorded a recovery in Bitcoin address activity after falling to levels close to those of 2018-2019. This could correspond to the process of forming a market bottom; however, analysts estimate that it is not a signal to buy by itself.

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Another important indicator remains the $70,000 level. CryptoQuant reported the transfer of over 38,000 BTC to accumulation addresses, which are typically associated with long-term investors and over-the-counter settlements. However, analysts emphasize that the mere fact of such coin movement does not guarantee the start of a new bullish trend.

A more optimistic forecast was previously voiced by Nansen founder and CEO Alex Svanevik. He stated that Bitcoin is unlikely to ever drop below $60,000 again. In the long term, he also allows for the asset to rise to $1 million. Svanevik links Bitcoin's potential to its role as a hedge against currency devaluation, as well as to the transition of the crypto market from a predominantly speculative model to the use of blockchain for real assets.