Memecoins: 17 Days to Reach the Peak, One Year to Lose 95%!

A rapid ascent, a prolonged fall. Memecoins can reach their peak in just a few days, then lose most of their value in the following months. In its State of the Network report dated October 6, 2026, Coin Metrics analyzes the journey of around 150 tokens to measure this discrepancy. The results describe a market where initial surges rarely lead to sustainable recoveries. However, the sample and methodology impose several precautions before generalizing these observations.

Key Points

• The memecoins studied reach their peak in a median of 17.2 days, with a quarter peaking in less than 1.6 days.
• The median time between the peak and a 95% loss is 370 days.
• The sample includes only tokens with a price on at least one centralized platform, leaving aside many early failures.

Memecoins: A Few Days to Peak, Months to Collapse

Coin Metrics distinguishes three moments: the first observed trade, the all-time high, and a 95% drop from that peak. To analyze these trajectories, the firm uses the Kaplan-Meier method, also employed in medical studies to estimate survival durations.

First result: the peak arrives quickly. The median time reaches 17.2 days after trading begins, while a quarter of the tokens peak in less than thirty-eight hours. This does not mean they spend seventeen days at the peak, nor that their price progresses uninterrupted during this period.

Next, the decline can stretch out. The median time between the peak and crossing the 95% loss threshold reaches 370 days. However, this duration does not describe a steady decline: intermediate rebounds can accompany the overall price degradation.

The report also indicates that 81% of tokens have experienced a decline of at least 90% from a peak. Returns to record highs remain rare in the observations presented. It is essential to distinguish between a rebound and a full recovery: after a 90% drop, a price must be multiplied by ten to return to its previous level. After a 95% loss, it must be multiplied by twenty.

Finally, the term here is a statistical convention. A token can continue to circulate and attract transactions despite a collapse in its price. The threshold used does not prove either the abandonment of the project or the disappearance of its community. The grandeur and decadence of a memecoin's life in the crypto market -- Source: Account X

Pump.fun and the Limits of a Selected Sample

Moreover, the study does not cover all memecoins created. To be included in the sample, a token must have price data from at least one centralized platform. This condition excludes many tokens launched on platforms like Pump.fun, whose commercial existence remains limited to decentralized exchanges.

This selection affects the interpretation of the results. The observed tokens have already gained visibility and market access that many others never achieve. Their lifespans do not necessarily represent those of the most ephemeral creations.

Furthermore, a listing does not guarantee sufficient liquidity. The displayed price and the amount actually recoverable upon sale are two different things. In a shallow market, selling a large position can cause further price declines.

These statistics also do not conclude that buying in the early hours constitutes a winning strategy. The peak is recognized retrospectively. At launch, no one knows for sure which token will attract buyers, which will disappear quickly, or if early holders will sell before others.

Similarly, the price losses of tokens do not directly measure the proportion of losing investors: this depends on purchase dates, sales, invested amounts, and fees.

The study thus primarily documents the fragility of the observed trajectories. A spectacular rise can precede a long degradation, and the persistence of a ticker on a platform does not, by itself, signify a recovery. A market for an informed audience, therefore.

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