SpaceX Shifts Focus to Starship, Leaving Falcon 9 Behind Amid Stock Price Inflection Point

[Mexico City = Shim Young-jae, Correspondent] SpaceX is turning away new customers for its proven Falcon 9 rocket and concentrating its business capabilities on the next-generation spacecraft, Starship. With Starship still in the testing phase, it remains uncertain whether it can replace the Falcon business, and the results of the 13th test flight have emerged as a short-term inflection point for the stock price, which has shown weakness since its listing.

According to Yahoo Finance on the 24th (local time), SpaceX is set to conduct the 13th test flight of Starship that night. As of 11:39 AM Eastern Time on the same day, SpaceX's stock price was $113.12, down $5.12 (4.33%) from the previous trading day.

Stopping New Falcon Customers... Betting Business Future on Starship

According to Bloomberg, SpaceX has begun rejecting new requests from operators wishing to launch satellites exclusively using the Falcon 9 rocket after 2028.

The Falcon 9 rideshare launch program, where multiple satellite operators share a single rocket, is also not accepting future bookings. Reports indicate that SpaceX has halted production of some disposable components, including the upper stages of the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy that carry satellites and cargo.

This is interpreted as SpaceX reducing new orders for the existing Falcon business and shifting its launch capabilities to Starship.

The Falcon 9 is a core revenue source for SpaceX. It has been transporting commercial satellites, government cargo, and astronauts into orbit based on its repeated launch performance and reusability technology. In contrast, Starship aims for large cargo transport and complete reusability but is still undergoing test flights.

The decision not to accept new customers for the proven Falcon business is based on the assumption that Starship will be commercialized as planned. If the Starship development schedule is delayed or fails to achieve stable repeated launches, the decrease in new Falcon contracts could lead to a future revenue gap.

13th Test Flight... Verification from Launch to Satellite Deployment

According to Yahoo Finance, this test flight will focus on verifying the booster’s launch, stage separation, and return procedures.

SpaceX plans to return the booster to a landing point in the Gulf of Mexico. The upper stage of Starship will deploy 20 Starlink V3 satellites before re-entering the atmosphere. The goal is to conduct a controlled descent and land in the Indian Ocean.

The Starship 40 involved in this flight is coupled with Booster 20. SpaceX conducted launch preparations at its South Texas facility in Cameron County, Texas, on the 22nd.

Originally, the test was scheduled for the 16th, but the launch was canceled due to some rocket engines failing to ignite.

There are several tasks that SpaceX must confirm during this flight. They need to prove the normal operation of the booster engines, stage separation, return flight, as well as the deployment of Starlink satellites and the re-entry stability of the upper stage.

In particular, if the deployment of the 20 Starlink V3 satellites is successful, it could demonstrate that Starship can function as a large-scale satellite transport vehicle. This would provide evidence that SpaceX can transition its launch business from Falcon to Starship.

About 25% Drop Since Listing... Test Success as a Stock Variable

According to Yahoo Finance, this flight is the first Starship launch conducted by SpaceX since it completed its IPO on the 12th of last month.

SpaceX's stock price has dropped about 25% since its listing. On the day, it started around $118.24 during trading, but by around 10 AM, it had widened its losses to the $112 range. It later recovered somewhat but traded around the $113 mark.

If the test flight is successful, it could alleviate investors' technical concerns and serve as a catalyst for a rebound in the stock price. Conversely, if the launch is canceled again or issues arise during the flight, uncertainty regarding the Starship transition strategy could increase.

However, Wall Street is focusing more on long-term repeated launch capabilities and economic viability than on a single test result.

Seth Seifman, a JP Morgan analyst, projected in a report sent to clients before the canceled test flight last week that there would be a mix of technical advancements and setbacks as Starship works toward its goals.

He explained that SpaceX aims to increase the number of Starship launches to dozens by 2027, hundreds by 2028, and eventually thousands thereafter.

Reusability Economics as Key... Wall Street Focuses on Recovery Costs

The key point investors are watching is not just whether the launch is successful.

According to Yahoo Finance, analysts are paying close attention to the time and costs involved in restoring the upper stage of Starship, which experiences significant heat and pressure during atmospheric re-entry, to a flight-capable state.

For SpaceX to replace the Falcon business with Starship, recovering the launch vehicle alone is not enough. They must be able to inspect and relaunch the recovered spacecraft in a short time and at low cost.

Falcon 9 has reduced launch costs through the reusability of its first-stage booster. However, the upper stage is mostly single-use. Starship aims for a fully reusable structure, reusing both the booster and the upper stage.

If the replacement of heat shield tiles, structural inspections, and engine maintenance for the upper stage take a lot of time and costs, the economics of Starship will diminish. This is why the maintenance process after the flight is as important as the success of the launch.

The timing of SpaceX starting to reduce new Falcon customers is also noteworthy. If they reduce contracts for existing launch vehicles before the technical maturity of Starship is secured, the company could lose both revenue and customers during the transition period.

On the other hand, if they can prove Starship's reusability and large transport capabilities, they could significantly increase the number of launches and cargo volume. SpaceX could utilize Starship not only for expanding its own Starlink satellite network but also for large commercial satellites and lunar and Mars exploration missions.

This 13th test flight is expected to serve as a benchmark for whether SpaceX can shift from a Falcon-centric business to a Starship-centric business.