Stablecoins and Tokenized Deposits: Banks Could Lose $230 Billion

Banks are at risk of losing $230 billion in payment revenues with the rise of stablecoins and tokenized deposits.

Stablecoins, tokenized deposits, and central bank digital currencies are expected to represent 4% of the global payment volume by 2030.

Approximately 60% of companies are open to engaging stablecoin services from non-bank institutions.

Tokenized deposits emerge as the banks' main short-term priority to retain deposits and preserve liquidity.

$4 trillion in capital is held in accounts to finance cross-border payment flows.

The Current Payment Landscape

The global payments industry is approaching a tipping point. As stablecoins, tokenized deposits¹, and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) move from the experimentation phase to commercialization, banks face increasing pressure on traditional payment revenue sources. According to the Capgemini Research Institute's Global Payments Report 2027, these instruments are estimated to represent approximately 4% of the global payment volume by 2030, impacting high-margin revenue sources such as exchange spreads, correspondent banking, float earnings, and transaction processing fees.

Banks have prioritized payment innovation for corporate clients over the past three years. 60% of them identify this area as a strategic investment focus. However, only one in three corporate clients is satisfied with their primary banking partner, revealing a growing gap between what banks deliver and what companies increasingly expect to receive.

Challenges in Cross-Border Payments

Nearly three-quarters (74%) of organizations describe cross-border payments as slow, costly, and unpredictable. Additionally, the complete journey of corporate payments, from origination and transfer to confirmation and reconciliation, takes about three and a half days. During this process, more than half (57%) report not having access to real-time payment status, cash positions, or transparent pricing. As a result, companies cite the predictability of settlement outcomes, real-time visibility of payment execution, and more robust fraud protection among their most persistent unmet needs. Consequently, companies incur total costs equivalent to 2% of the transaction value in a typical cross-border business-to-business (B2B) payment.

Currently in its 22nd edition, the new report surveyed over 1,100 large companies with revenues exceeding $1 billion. On average, respondents indicate that they operate in 14 markets, maintain 11 banking relationships, and conduct 34% of their B2B payment volume through cross-border transactions. However, despite improvements in payment infrastructure, operational fragmentation remains the primary challenge for corporate clients.

Accelerated Intelligent Money Instruments

Structural limitations in B2B payment infrastructure, regulatory clarity, and shifts in market dynamics drive the emergence of what the report defines as "accelerated intelligent money"—stablecoins, tokenized deposits, and CBDCs that enable money to do more than just transit between accounts. By enabling 24/7 execution, integrated rules, and real-time settlement, these instruments can reduce friction in cross-border payment flows. Therefore, the report estimates that large-scale adoption could free up to $4 trillion currently held in settlement and liquidity accounts—capital that generates little return and cannot be applied for loans, investments, or other productive purposes.

Corporate demand for this new generation of payment instruments is already consolidating, and banks continue to be the preferred providers. 71% of companies would choose a bank over a fintech for tokenized payments, provided that cost and quality are equivalent. However, this preference is not guaranteed. Almost 60% of corporate clients are willing to contract stablecoin services from non-bank institutions if their banking partners do not keep up with market developments. In fact, this loss of competitive advantage occurs in a scenario where corporate clients report that 36% of their B2B payment volume is already processed by non-bank institutions.

"The payments sector is entering its most significant disruption period since the emergence of digital banking," said Jeroen Hölscher, Global Leader of Payment Services at Capgemini. "We are leaving behind the hype cycle around smart money and entering a period where the economy and transaction volumes make it impossible for banks to remain on the sidelines. With $230 billion at stake, banks need to decide what role they want to play in this emerging ecosystem. A select group of banks has already made its choice and is now shaping the standards and governance that will define the market. Those who act now will build lasting trust, capture new payment flows, and retain the corporate deposits that sustain their broader banking relationships.

Banks Prioritize Tokenized Deposits

As smart money moves towards commercialization, banks need to define their strategic positioning in this ecosystem. The report reveals that banking executives identify tokenized deposits as the main short-term priority due to their ability to remain on balance sheets and comply with existing regulations. However, only 21% of banks—classified as market leaders—are actively scaling at least one accelerated smart money instrument, while the other 79% are assessing their position.

These high-performing banks focus on specific corporate use cases that resolve operational friction and monetize their value beyond transaction fees. The results are measurable, as these leaders are three times more likely than traditional banks to identify new revenue sources and expect to offset the decline in transaction revenues in 15 months, compared to 25 months for the rest of the sector. Finally, they are also more decisive: 33% of leaders seek to adopt a transformative market posture, shaping how the ecosystem operates, while 40% of traditional banks intend to adopt a reactive approach.

According to the report, since settlement with smart money is irrevocable, leaders prioritize compliance by integrating it directly into execution, even before the money is moved. In fact, they outperform traditional banks by 1.5 times in monitoring transactions across networks and are 1.2 times more likely to invest in AI-driven surveillance systems to identify unusual behaviors in wallets, as well as implement real-time AML and KYC checks in transaction flows.

However, even among leaders, fundamental gaps persist. Just over half (56%) have the talent and skills to create and maintain digital assets, as well as the technical readiness and capabilities necessary to enable tokenization, smart contracts, and interoperability between financial networks. Therefore, overcoming this gap will determine which banks are best positioned to move from the experimentation phase to scaling.

Methodology

The Global Payments Report 2027 is based on two main sources of research. The 2026 Global Corporate Survey, conducted between May and June 2026 in collaboration with INJ Partners, interviewed 1,110 large companies with revenues exceeding $1 billion across nine countries. The respondents were evenly distributed among the insurance, manufacturing, and logistics/transport sectors.

The Global Banking Executive Survey, conducted during the same period, interviewed 300 banking executives in nine countries: Australia, France, Germany, Hong Kong, the Netherlands, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Banks classified as "leaders" are actively expanding at least one accelerated smart money instrument, while traditional banks are still in pilot project, evaluation, or do not consider these instruments.

About Capgemini

Capgemini is a global business and technology transformation partner driven by Artificial Intelligence, generating tangible value in the market. We envision the future of organizations and make it a reality through AI, technology, and people. With a strong track record of nearly 60 years, we are a responsible and diverse group with 420,000 professionals in over 50 countries. We offer end-to-end services and solutions that leverage our deep industry expertise and a robust ecosystem of partners, enhancing our capabilities in strategy, technology, design, engineering, and business operations. The Group reported global revenues of €22.5 billion in 2025.

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About the Capgemini Research Institute

The Capgemini Research Institute is Capgemini's internal think tank dedicated to digital universe topics. The Institute publishes research on the impact of digital technologies on large traditional enterprises. The team includes Capgemini's global network of experts and works closely with academic and technological partners. The Institute has dedicated research centers in India, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and the United States. In fact, it has been ranked number 1 in the world for research quality by independent analysts for six consecutive times -- an unprecedented achievement in the industry.

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¹ Stablecoins are digital currencies whose value is pegged to a traditional currency, while tokenized deposits are traditional bank deposits issued as digital tokens on a blockchain.

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