The correlation between Bitcoin and US Treasuries exceeds 0.6

The correlation between Bitcoin and US Treasuries, measured on real yields, has reached a record positive level above 0.6, according to research from Fidelity Digital Assets published on October 15, 2026.

This data calls into question the role of Bitcoin in portfolios. Historically, the link with the real yields of US government bonds was weak or negative; today it is clear and positive. What if the price is now driven by the public finances of the United States?

Summary

• Key points
• The correlation between Bitcoin and US Treasuries breaks with the past
• US public finances behind Fidelity's explanation
• What changes for portfolio models
• Two months of parallel rises

Key points

• Fidelity measures a record value above 0.6 between Bitcoin's market capitalization and the real yields of 10-year Treasuries.
• In the past, the link was negative or close to zero.
• The relationship is linked to pressures on US public finances.
• Over the past two months, Bitcoin and 10-year rates have risen together.

The correlation between Bitcoin and US Treasuries breaks with the past

The value above 0.6 marks a reversal from recent history. Previously, the relationship was negative or close to zero, while Fidelity's reading places it firmly in positive territory.

The distinction between nominal yields and real yields carries significant weight. Real yields account for inflation and show how much a lender earns after adjusting for changes in purchasing power.

Fidelity compared Bitcoin's market capitalization with the real yield of 10-year Treasuries.

US public finances behind Fidelity's explanation

Fidelity attributes the change to macroeconomic pressures, particularly rising US debt and deficits. Interest on federal debt has become the second-largest budget item, ahead of Medicare.

According to Crypto Briefing, the study links the shift to growing fiscal concerns, with US federal debt exceeding $40 trillion. The research suggests that investors may respond to these pressures by turning to Bitcoin, whose supply and issuance rules differ from those of public debt.

The supply of Bitcoin cannot exceed 21 million coins, and its issuance schedule is transparent and written in code.

Chris Kuiper, Vice President of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets, addressed the topic in a comment on October 1, 2026. He related the rise in Treasury yields and Bitcoin price increases to investor sentiment regarding fiscal deficits and rising debt levels.

This reading places the two movements in the same fiscal debate, rather than treating them as unrelated facts.

What changes for portfolio models

The positive correlation calls into question models built on Bitcoin moving against real yields or being nearly independent of them. Hedging based on past patterns may behave differently if the link persists.

However, its durability is not established. Changes in fiscal policy, budget negotiations, and Treasury auctions are among the developments that will test the relationship.

For Fidelity, the data indicates that Bitcoin is increasingly entering the market discussion on US public finances.

Two months of parallel rises

In the two months preceding the publication of the research, both Bitcoin and 10-year Treasury rates rose. These parallel increases provide the backdrop for the record value.

During that period, Bitcoin rose by nearly 30%, while 10-year Treasury rates increased by over 10%.