Trump's Approval Drops to 33% and Pressures Markets Ahead of Midterms

President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 33% among registered voters, according to a national survey by Focaldata commissioned by the Financial Times. This is the lowest level since the British newspaper began measuring the indicator in May. The previous month had already seen a decline, but the drop of three percentage points in just four weeks signals an acceleration of political weariness less than two months before the midterm elections.

For those following financial markets, the implications extend beyond politics. The erosion of political capital for an American president directly affects the ability to pass economic legislation, negotiate trade agreements, and sustain the confidence of domestic and foreign investors. The numbers from this survey tell a story of broad deterioration, including within the Republican base itself.

What Lies Behind the Approval Drop

The weariness has a name: the economy and the cost of living. Nearly two-thirds of voters surveyed in the poll stated that the U.S. economy is heading in the wrong direction. Even more revealing: 57% said they are in a worse financial situation under the current administration, up from 53% the previous month. The perception of decline has accelerated.

Among the concrete factors, the price of diesel in the U.S. hit a record high of $5.85 per gallon, according to AAA data. Higher fuel prices increase costs across the entire logistics chain, from food to industrial goods. As we analyzed in articles about the impact of American inflation on global markets, the pressure on energy costs in the U.S. has a cascading effect on risk assets worldwide.

The ongoing war with Iran, which the White House has been unable to resolve, has raised the financing costs of U.S. Treasury bonds over the past six months. More expensive Treasuries mean higher interest rates for mortgages, loans, and corporate credit. The effect is felt in voters' pockets and in companies' balance sheets.

Republican Base Fractures and Tariffs Increase Rejection

The most concerning data for the White House may not be the overall numbers, but the fragmentation of the base. Approval among Republicans has dropped to 72%, a historic low in the Financial Times series. Among these same voters, only 53% approved of the government's handling of jobs and the economy, a decline of nearly eight percentage points in just one month.

The tariff policy is the epicenter of this dissatisfaction. The decision to impose a 50% tariff on about $20 billion in Canadian products generated disapproval from 56% of voters. More than 60% of independents rejected the measure, and nearly a third of Republicans did as well.

Canada responded with retaliatory tariffs of up to 50% on American imports, deepening the trade war and fueling fears of even higher prices. As we explained in our coverage of the effects of American tariffs on global trade, this type of protectionist escalation historically pressures corporate margins and generates volatility in stock markets.

Midterms Transform into Economic Referendum

The midterm elections, scheduled for November, have taken on the contours of a referendum on economic management. In the generic vote scenario for Congress, Democrats hold a 7.5-point advantage over Republicans. The previous month, the difference was five points. The trend is widening.

Trump has chosen to place himself at the center of the Republican campaign, with an unprecedented two-day National Republican Committee convention scheduled for next week in Dallas. But the strategy may backfire. In the survey, 46% of voters said Trump's presence makes it harder for Republican candidates to win. Among independents, 47% stated that a presidential endorsement would make them less likely to support the endorsed candidate.

For investors, the composition of Congress matters. A divided legislature, with Democrats controlling the House, would limit the agenda for tax cuts and deregulation that underpins part of market optimism. Historically, as we have shown in analyses of electoral cycles and markets, pre-midterm uncertainty tends to generate volatility, but the post-election period usually brings relief regardless of the outcome.

What the White House Says and What the Data Shows

The official government response to the Financial Times was to reiterate its commitment to tax cuts, deregulation, and energy expansion. The White House cited the August employment report as evidence of job creation in the private sector.

The employment data did indeed show resilience. But the labor market is a lagging indicator. When the cost of living rises faster than wages, voters' perceptions deteriorate even with job creation. This is exactly what the numbers from this survey capture: a disconnect between macro indicators and the everyday experiences of American families.

The survey was conducted online between August 28 and September 1, with 1,914 registered voters and a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points. It is a robust but instantaneous sample. Events such as a potential resolution of the conflict with Iran or a reversal of tariff policy could quickly alter voter sentiment. For now, the outlook points to a second half of political turbulence in the United States, with direct implications for monetary policy, the dollar, and global markets.

This content is provided for general informational purposes only and doesn't constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Any events, rewards, online promotions, or related information mentioned herein should not be considered a recommendation, solicitation, or invitation to purchase, sell, trade, or otherwise deal in any crypto assets. Crypto assets are highly volatile and may result in loss. The availability of WEEX services, products, and related events may vary by region. You are responsible for ensuring that your participation is in accordance with applicable local laws and regulations.