UBS Expects 0.25% Rate Hike from Fed in September and December

UBS Global Wealth Management has revised its outlook for the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rates, predicting a 0.25 percentage point (25bp) increase at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings in September and December. Previously, UBS had forecast that the Fed would keep interest rates unchanged for the remainder of the year, but this revision indicates a shift towards rate hikes. The specific rationale behind UBS's revised forecast has not been confirmed. This outlook is similar to that of Société Générale, which also anticipates 25bp rate increases in September, December, and March 2027. Rate hikes could increase borrowing costs, potentially putting pressure on the prices of risk assets such as Bitcoin (BTC). Despite a surprise in U.S. employment figures on the 7th, Bitcoin has maintained a value of $79,000. The Fed makes its monetary policy decisions based on inflation and employment data, and recently, five regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents have expressed support for additional rate hikes, indicating a growing hawkish stance. The actual decision on rate hikes will be made at the September FOMC meeting.

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