Withholdings: How Much the Agricultural Sector Will Contribute Despite Lower Rates

The agricultural sector will contribute $4.613 billion in withholdings during 2026, just 1% less than last year, despite the reduction in rates. The higher volume of exports will help offset part of the impact of the lower rates, according to estimates from the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR).

The projection includes the six main export complexes of Argentine agriculture: soybean, corn, wheat, sunflower, barley, and sorghum. Among them, the oilseed will continue to account for the majority of the revenue from export duties, followed by cereals.

However, the collection behavior will be very different between the two halves of the year. During the first half, the six complexes contributed $1.881 billion, a 51% decrease compared to the same period in 2025 and the second lowest record since 2020.

The BCR explained that the year-on-year comparison is conditioned by the exceptional schemes implemented during 2025, which altered the usual pattern of sales declarations abroad and, consequently, the timing of when withholdings were taxed.

One of the factors was the temporary reduction of export duties between February and June 2025, which incentivized an anticipation of the sworn sales declarations (DJVE). This was compounded by the temporary elimination of rates in September of last year, when operations were allowed to be registered without withholdings until a certain quota was reached.

For all of 2026, the Rosario Stock Exchange estimates that the six main agro-export complexes will leave $4.613 billion in public coffers from export duties. This amount represents a decrease of just 1% compared to 2025, despite the lower rates. The explanation lies mainly in the higher volume of exports expected for some of the main crops.

Nonetheless, the collection remains significantly below the peaks reached in 2021 and 2022, when high international prices for agricultural commodities drove withholding revenues up to $9.101 billion.

The soybean will continue to be, by a wide margin, the complex that generates the most resources from withholdings. The BCR estimates that the chain, which includes beans, flour, oil, and biodiesel, will contribute $3.275 billion during 2026. Thus, the soybean complex will account for around 71% of the total estimated for the six main agro-export sectors.

Between soybean and corn, they would contribute around $4.029 billion, almost 87% of the expected export duties for the six analyzed complexes.

One of the keys to the BCR's projection is the strong change expected for the second half of the year. After the $1.881 billion collected between January and June, the entity estimates that between July and December, another $2.731 billion will enter.

This figure contrasts with the mere $861 million recorded during the second half of 2025. The Rosario Stock Exchange attributed this expected recovery to a normalization of the pattern of sales declarations abroad. To make the estimate, it assumed that the DJVE as a proportion of production will return to a pace similar to the average of the last five years.

Thus, despite the reduction in rates, the higher volume exported and the normalization of declarations would allow export duty revenues to end 2026 practically in line with those of the previous year, with soybean again as the main source of revenue for the agro-export sector.

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