El CAD vulnerable a un doble golpe de mayores diferenciales y precios del petróleo más bajos – Scotiabank
By: fxstreet es|2025/05/15 20:15:11
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El CAD está entrando en la sesión NA del jueves plano frente al USD, pero operando de manera algo defensiva, reflejando la carga de los precios más bajos del petróleo en medio de la perspectiva de un posible acuerdo entre EE.UU. e Irán, señala Shaun Osborne, estratega jefe de FX de Scotiabank. El RSI permanece en territorio alcista "Los diferenciales de rendimiento más amplios han sido un viento en contra reciente para el CAD, y su impacto se ha visto algo suavizado por la recuperación del crudo en la última semana. Los precios más bajos del petróleo y los diferenciales de rendimiento más amplios están causando un doble golpe para la moneda y dejándola vulnerable a una mayor debilidad a corto plazo." "Nuestra estimación de FV para USD/CAD ha aumentado en conjunto con el spot, y actualmente se sitúa en 1.3892. A nivel nacional, el riesgo del CAD está relacionado con la publicación de los inicios de construcción (8:15 am ET), las ventas manufactureras (8:30 am ET) y las ventas de viviendas existentes (9:00 am ET), sin embargo, el tono más amplio probablemente seguirá siendo dominante a la luz de los riesgos relacionados con Powell y el calendario de datos de EE.UU. El calendario del BoC parece haber añadido un compromiso de hablar para el gobernador Macklem, el próximo jueves en Banff, al margen de la reunión del G7 de ministros de finanzas y gobernadores de bancos centrales." "El USD/CAD parece haber formado un sólido (doble) techo a corto plazo a principios de esta semana, ya que habíamos notado una clara resistencia por encima de 1.4000. El doble techo de USD/CAD observado el lunes y martes alcanzó su objetivo de movimiento medido el miércoles y el posterior soporte ha aumentado la perspectiva de un nuevo empuje por encima de 1.4000. Ampliando la vista, seguimos destacando la importancia del punto medio del rango de septiembre/febrero alrededor de 1.4100. El RSI permanece en territorio alcista, flotando justo por encima de 50. El soporte a corto plazo ha sido claramente definido alrededor de 1.3920."
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