Anxiety and Anticipation: SK Hynix's Stock Price Declines but Remains Favorably Viewed by Institutions, Market Focuses on HBM4 Technology Moat

Odaily Planet Daily reports that SK Hynix's stock price has recently experienced a decline, falling 8.79% on August 3. Although it rebounded slightly by 0.64% and 5.77% on August 4 and 5, respectively, the stock plummeted again by 10.37% on August 6, closing at 1,495,000 KRW. On August 7, it further dropped by 4.88%, ending at 1,422,000 KRW.

Against the backdrop of increased market volatility, SK Group released an advertisement quoting founder Choi Jong-hyun's famous saying: "Despair and hope are two sides of the same coin, and can be flipped like turning over a palm to transform despair into hope." It was rephrased as: "The anxiety and anticipation of the AI era are also two sides of the same coin, capable of transforming anxiety into anticipation," conveying confidence in the long-term development of the AI industry.

Securities institutions believe that short-term stock price fluctuations do not alter SK Hynix's fundamentals, and the market should focus on its leading advantage in HBM4 technology and the performance stability brought by long-term supply agreements (LTA). Among them:

1. Hyundai Motor Securities expects SK Hynix's DRAM and NAND bit growth rates for the third quarter to reach 9.7% and 1.5%, respectively. As HBM4 sales contributions expand, even with an increase in the proportion of long-term supply agreements, the average selling price (ASP) of DRAM is still expected to rise by 19.9% quarter-on-quarter. Companies like OpenAI and Anthropic are advancing the construction of large-scale AI data centers and plan to finance related construction through IPOs. Even if some large tech companies adjust their capital expenditures (Capex) in the future, this may be offset by other AI infrastructure demands. Additionally, regarding competition concerns from China's Changxin Memory Technologies (CXMT), considering the U.S. continues to strengthen semiconductor equipment export restrictions and Micron expands investments in the U.S., the likelihood of major companies like Apple adopting Chinese memory chips is low.

2. SK Securities also views SK Hynix's competitive advantages positively, believing that with its leading position in the HBM field, partnerships with major GPU companies in North America, and AI-driven LTA demand, SK Hynix's position in the market remains solid. Currently, the HBM supply-demand satisfaction rate is less than 70%, and the core value of long-term supply agreements lies in ensuring profit sustainability and performance stability through a "mutual binding structure" between customers and suppliers. With the advancement of value reassessment measures such as ADR listings and dividends from the sale of Kioxia-related SPC assets, the company may reach its net cash target of 100 trillion KRW sooner. The gradual clarification of future shareholder return policies will help the market reassess the value of the LTA model and drive further increases in SK Hynix's valuation.

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