Banking Delinquency of Families Slowed Down in August, But in Fintechs and Wallets Reached a Record 33.9%

Delinquency in private credit found a brake in August within the banking system, after reaching the highest levels in two decades. The total irregularity remained at 7.7%, while among families it marginally decreased from 12.9% to 12.8%. The picture was very different outside the banks: the delinquency of households with non-financial entities rose again for the 21st consecutive month and reached a record of 33.9%.

The data comes from a report by 1816, prepared based on the Central Debtors of the Central Bank (CENDEU). The consultancy clarified that this is a preliminary estimate prior to the BCRA Bank Report for August, which will only be known at the end of October.

It is worth noting that the behavior was different between households and companies. While family delinquency decreased by 0.1 percentage points, the irregularity of companies increased from 3.6% to 3.8%.

Nevertheless, the aggregated data showed stabilization. Private delinquency practically did not move during the four months from May to August. The contrast with less than two years ago remains significant. In October 2024, total irregularity barely reached 1.5%, with 2.5% for families and 0.7% for companies.

A Signal Not Seen Since March 2024

The marginal improvement in August had, moreover, a particularity. According to 1816, the overdue balances of families fell in real terms, something that had not happened since March 2024.

The data is relevant because the delinquency rate arises from comparing the amount of irregular credits against the total financing. That is, in August, the slight improvement was not explained solely by a change in the denominator, but also by a real reduction in unpaid balances.

However, the picture was not homogeneous among banks: the irregularity of families increased in 17 of the 30 main financial entities, measured by their volume of loans to households, indicated 1816.

Families Refinanced More Than $2.7 Trillion

One of the most significant data from the report appears in refinancings. In August, the refinanced balance reached 3.8% of total credit to families and 0.8% of financing to companies, new highs for both series.

In the case of households, refinanced debts have already surpassed $2.7 trillion. For 1816, this process should contribute to a reduction in delinquency ratios in the coming months.

However, the effect is not immediate. According to the debtor classification rules cited by 1816, a person in Situation 3, with delays of between 90 and 180 days, takes at least two months to stop being considered delinquent. For someone in Situation 4, with delays of between 180 days and a year, the minimum period is five months; and for someone in Situation 5, with more than a year of delay, it rises to eight months.

There is another signal pointing towards a possible moderation. The percentage of bank debt classified in Situation 2 -delays of up to 90 days that are not yet considered irregular- fell to 2.7%, its lowest level since August 2025. Precisely, the peak of debt in Situation 2 was recorded in August of last year. The report highlights that, in other episodes, those peaks preceded delinquency peaks. Delinquency itself includes situations 3, 4, and 5.

Despite these signals, 1816 warned that the speed at which delinquency can recede will depend on the recovery of credit, as the stock of financing constitutes the denominator of the indicator.

At this point, the dynamics still look weak. The stock of loans in pesos to the private sector, measured in real terms, is practically at the same level as in July 2025, when the Government eliminated the LEFI. The report highlighted the "weak performance" of loans over the last 15 months.

The consultancy also marked as a factor to closely monitor the evolution of rates. According to the report, the jump to 20% annual forward rate in dollars between an AO27 and an AO28 constitutes a "clear yellow light". "In the long run, that rate in dollars must fall or the rates in pesos (which are based on the 20% that BCRA pays in REPO) must rise," said 1816.

The Other Side: Delinquency Rose to 33.9% Outside Financial Entities

The stabilization observed in financial entities contrasts with what happens outside that segment. Among non-financial entities (fintechs, virtual wallets, or commercial chains), family delinquency rose again for the 21st consecutive month and reached 33.9%, up from the previous 33.69%.

The deterioration becomes more relevant when compared to the traditional financial system: while among families the irregularity with financial entities stood at 12.8%, in non-financial entities it reached 33.9%, a difference of more than 21 percentage points.

Nevertheless, this segment has a smaller weight within total financing: non-financial entities account for approximately 17% of credit to households, when considering both universes together.

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