Bitcoin at $400,000: Brian Armstrong (Coinbase) Sticks to His Target for 2030

Same target, same figure. In an interview on September 28 on Nicole Lapin's Money Rehab podcast, Brian Armstrong confirmed that he still aims for Bitcoin to reach $400,000 by 2030. The CEO of Coinbase relies on the four-year cycles marked by the halving. Long-term holders are well acquainted with this mechanism.

His calculation can be summed up in one line: about three times the previous all-time high of Bitcoin, which is the peak of $126,000 in October 2025. The target represents nearly five times the current price, which hovers around $84,000. The executive immediately attached a formal warning to this statement.

Key Points

• The Coinbase CEO still expects BTC to reach $400,000 before the end of the decade.
• His reasoning is based on the repetition of the post-halving pattern and a tripling of the previous peak.
• Such a price would bring the network valuation to around $8.2 trillion.
• Other firms aim much higher, while Bitwise considers the cycle theory outdated since the arrival of ETFs.

Brian Armstrong and the Four-Year Bitcoin Cycles

The mechanism is not mysterious. Every 210,000 blocks, or roughly every four years, the reward for miners is halved: this is the halving. The last one reduced the issuance to 3.125 BTC per block in April 2024. The next one will drop it to 1.5625 BTC in spring 2028. Each contraction of the new supply has so far preceded a price surge. A correction of about a year has then followed.

Brian Armstrong applies this framework to the next cycle. If the pattern repeats, Bitcoin would approach three times its previous peak by 2030. The network valuation would thus reach around $8.2 trillion, compared to $2.5 trillion in October 2025. The Coinbase CEO has taken care to qualify his statement. He claims, however, that he cannot predict the price and refers to a "possible outcome" if the cycle repeats. This is a personal opinion, not an official position of Coinbase.

Bitcoin at $400,000, an Almost Reasonable Forecast

Compared to the targets circulating among asset managers, the Coinbase CEO's target seems moderate. At ARK Invest, Cathie Wood predicts $1.5 million in 2030 in her bullish scenario. However, her central scenario stops at around $710,000. Michael Saylor mentions $21 million per Bitcoin by 2046 to justify the accumulation led by Strategy.

The four-year cycle, however, is no longer universally accepted. Matt Hougan, Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer, has argued since 2025 that this rhythm is dead. Indeed, the arrival of spot ETFs is said to have killed it, just like the demand from corporate treasuries. The argument is arithmetic. Daily issuance hovers around 450 bitcoins, while U.S. spot ETFs now hold over a million in total. The supply shock caused by the halving weighs less and less against these flows.

No one is neutral here. The head of a platform whose revenues depend on trading volumes has a direct interest in the price rising. Coinbase itself holds several thousand bitcoins on its balance sheet. However, his projection has the merit of remaining within verifiable orders of magnitude. It is even more measured than the million dollars he mentioned himself in 2025.

The next halving is expected in spring 2028, at block 1,050,000. Daily issuance will fall below 230 bitcoins. Brian Armstrong will thus have another two years to verify his rule of three.

This content is provided for general informational purposes only and doesn't constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Any events, rewards, online promotions, or related information mentioned herein should not be considered a recommendation, solicitation, or invitation to purchase, sell, trade, or otherwise deal in any crypto assets. Crypto assets are highly volatile and may result in loss. The availability of WEEX services, products, and related events may vary by region. You are responsible for ensuring that your participation is in accordance with applicable local laws and regulations.