Bitcoin beats the S&P 500 on most trading days but still loses the month

Bitcoin's relative win rate against the S&P 500 recovered above 50% in recent sessions, up from about one session in five in June, its weakest stretch in roughly six years, according to Glassnode.

Coinbase Institutional's Oct. 23 report found BlackRock's IBIT drawing about $6 billion since Aug. 1 against roughly $500 million across all other US spot Bitcoin ETFs, a 92% share of net inflows. Farside Investors' data extended through Oct. 26 puts the share at 96.3%.

A date-matched calculation for October through Oct. 26 shows Bitcoin beating the S&P 500 on 10 of 18 sessions (55.6%). Bitcoin fell 4.25% over the same stretch, and the S&P rose 0.33%, a 4.58% gap in stocks' favor.

In its 10 winning sessions, Bitcoin's average edge was about 0.71%, and in its eight losing sessions, its average shortfall was 1.44%, roughly twice as large.

A concentrated bid for Bitcoin

In the first half of 2026, corporate treasuries bought about $14.5 billion of Bitcoin while US spot ETFs saw almost $5 billion of net outflows. Since August, ETFs have drawn roughly $6.4 billion against about $1.5 billion from treasuries.

Farside Investors' fund-level data shows that from Aug. 3 through Oct. 26, IBIT took in a net $5.7 billion and every other fund combined $221 million.

October's share is undefined as a concentration measure, since IBIT added $866 million while rival funds lost over $1 billion and the whole category sits at about $203 million of net outflows.

The Farside figure through Oct. 21 was about 90.5%, so the rise toward 96.3% reflects redemptions at other funds as much as buying at IBIT.

Across October's 18 sessions, IBIT averaged $48.1 million of daily net inflows and competing funds lost $59.4 million a day, for a combined daily outflow of $11.3 million.

If rival redemptions held that pace, IBIT's daily inflows would need to rise about 24%, to $59.4 million, to bring the category to zero.

Concentration describes the observable ETF channel, and IBIT serves many investors, advisers and market makers.

ETF creations and redemptions pass through hedging, inventory and settlement before reaching the spot market, so the share measures ETF flows and leaves single buyers and total Bitcoin purchases outside its scope.

Thin liquidity beneath the recovery

Stablecoin supply sits about $12.7 billion below its May peak, and the seven-day Coinbase premium stayed negative through October, as of the Oct. 23 report, pointing to soft US spot demand.

Glassnode's latest weekly report shows spot cumulative volume delta at negative $80.5 million, futures open interest near $37.5 billion, and active addresses near 615,200. Options 25-delta skew climbed to 10.4% from 8.9%, which shows stronger demand for downside protection.

Stablecoin supply is a liquidity stock, the premium compares two venues, and open interest counts positions on both sides. Together, they describe a regulated-access bid firmer than the underlying spot market.

Glassnode's Oct. 7 research noted that seven-day spot and ETF volume of about $6.8 billion was lower than on roughly 90% of days since January 2024, and identifiable new inflows covered less than two-fifths of the 30-day rise in realized capitalization.

Higher prices can reflect existing coins changing hands at higher valuations.

Where it goes from here

If the Fed holds, December expectations hold steady, IBIT inflows continue, and rival funds return to inflows, Bitcoin has a path from the $81,300 ETF cost basis Coinbase cites toward $82,500 to $84,400.

A move toward $88,000 to $95,000 would need the macro burden to ease and the dollar to soften. A falling IBIT share would be a constructive reading if it reflected competitors attracting inflows, and a worse reading if IBIT itself lost demand faster than other funds.

If strong GDP or sticky PCE reinforces higher-for-longer rates while IBIT inflows fade and other ETFs keep losing assets, a break below $77,000 to $77,800 would expose the $73,000 to $75,000 zone Coinbase identifies.

One-month implied volatility near 35%, in the bottom 7th percentile since 2019, frames the range. A one-standard-deviation move is roughly 4.8% either way over seven days, or about $76,100 to $83,900 from the $80,007 close on Oct. 26, and about 10% over 30 days.

Bitcoin's winning days are returning, and one fund drives the demand behind them. Net flows at rival ETFs, stablecoin supply, and the Coinbase premium will show whether the recovery broadens.

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