Bitcoin Direct Ownership vs Treasury Stocks: Which is the After-Tax Profit Winner?…Bitplanet Compares Investment Structures

The analysis indicates that even if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) rises by the same amount, the profits realized depend on the investment vehicle used. Bitplanet has compared the tax and profit structures of direct ownership, overseas spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and domestic and foreign digital asset treasury stocks in a research report. Domestic treasury stocks can yield higher after-tax profits than direct investments due to the exemption of capital gains tax for small shareholders and the increase in BTC per share, but this advantage may disappear if the market valuation of the company declines or if the shares are diluted.

The after-tax profit comparison presented in the report is based on the premise that the taxation of virtual assets will be implemented starting January 1, 2027. According to the report, a tax rate of 22%, including local income tax, applies to capital gains from the transfer or lending of virtual assets after a basic deduction of 2.5 million KRW per year. For overseas-listed ETFs and foreign stocks, a 22% tax is also imposed on capital gains exceeding the annual basic deduction. In contrast, when small shareholders of domestic listed stocks sell their shares in the securities market, capital gains are tax-exempt, and the transaction tax burden applied in the report is 0.20% of the sale price.

One should not simply subtract the two tax rates to calculate investment advantages. This is because taxes on virtual assets and foreign stocks are levied on 'profits', while the transaction tax on domestic listed stocks is imposed on 'the total sale price'. The scale of investment and the timing of holding also affect the results. If annual profits fall within the basic deduction range, the tax difference decreases. The report also considered regulations that recognize the higher of the market price at the end of 2026 and the actual acquisition cost for Bitcoin held before the tax implementation.

The key to understanding the profit structure of treasury companies lies in 'BTC per share' and 'mNAV'. BTC per share refers to the amount of Bitcoin held corresponding to one share of stock, while mNAV based on market capitalization is the multiple obtained by dividing the market value of the held coins by the market capitalization of common shares. By aligning the criteria for currency and stock quantity, the stock price can be explained as the product of the Bitcoin price, BTC per share, and mNAV based on market capitalization. The mNAV based on enterprise value, which reflects liabilities, preferred shares, and cash, cannot be directly substituted into this formula.

When a company purchases additional coins, it does not necessarily mean that the share of existing shareholders will increase. If funds are raised through the issuance of new shares, both the amount held and the number of shares will increase. Depending on the issuance price and funding costs, BTC per share may increase or decrease. Convertible bonds carry not only the dilution from future stock conversions but also interest and repayment burdens. This is why the report emphasizes the 'fully diluted BTC per share', which reflects potential increases in shares.

In the model analysis presented by Bitplanet, when the price of Bitcoin rises by 100% and the initial investment is set at 100, the after-tax profit from direct ownership is calculated at 78.0. If the mNAV and BTC per share of domestic listed treasury stocks are maintained, it would be 99.6, and if BTC per share increases by 5% over the entire investment period, it would be 109.6. This assumes the implementation of virtual asset taxation and the tax exemption for small shareholders in Korea, excluding basic deductions and foreign exchange gains and losses. It does not indicate the expected return of a specific company.

For overseas spot ETFs, management fees based on the holding period are also reflected. The report assumes an annual fee of 0.25%, but this does not mean that the same rate applies to all products. Under the same price increase conditions, the after-tax profit of the ETF decreases to 77.6 after one year, 76.1 after five years, and 74.1 after ten years. Overseas-listed treasury stocks also do not benefit from the capital gains tax exemption for small shareholders in Korea, so they should be distinguished from domestic companies.

A variable that can reverse the advantage of after-tax profits is a decline in mNAV. In a model where BTC per share is maintained, if the price of Bitcoin rises by 20%, even a decrease of about 3.5% in mNAV from the investment point would equalize the after-tax profits of domestic treasury stocks and direct ownership. When the price increase rate is 50%, the decline would need to be about 7.1%, and when it is 100%, about 10.8% for the profits to be equal. This figure represents the relative rate of change, not the absolute difference in multiples. An increase in BTC per share allows for greater tolerance of declines, but if dilution occurs, it decreases.

In actual corporate cases, the returns on coins and stocks have diverged. According to the report's own aggregation, from the beginning of 2026 to August 31, the price of Bitcoin in KRW fell by 15.4%, while Bitplanet's stock price dropped by 39.8%. However, from June 30 to August 31, they increased by 21.3% and 88.3%, respectively. In the same comparison, the mNAV based on market capitalization increased from 1.23 times to 1.91 times. However, this multiple is an estimate based on the holdings and financial figures at the end of June, and the actual timing of the closing prices of stocks and coins does not coincide.

The 13.2% increase in BTC per share for Bitplanet in the first half of the year also requires careful interpretation. The report reflects that the holdings increased from about 265 to 300 during the same period without any new share issuance. However, if convertible bonds are converted into shares, the amount held per share may decrease. Additionally, the increase rate in the first half cannot be applied as an explanatory variable for the stock price increase after the end of June. The value of the existing information system development and operation business is also included in the market capitalization, making it difficult to interpret the entire mNAV as a premium attached to the coin holdings.

The report explains that even in the case of the American strategy, the performance of held coins and stocks can differ. According to the report's aggregation, Bitcoin fell by 6.3% in 2025, while the strategy's stock price dropped by 47.5%. This means that an increase in BTC per share alone cannot prevent a decline in stock prices, and evaluations of debt, preferred share dividend burdens, and funding conditions must also be considered. Since mNAV is an indicator calculated using stock prices, one should not conclude that the decline in multiples is an independent cause of stock price weakness.

In the conclusion of the report, Bitplanet analyzed that the superiority of Bitcoin investment methods is not determined by just one tax rate. It explains that one must also consider the implementation of virtual asset taxation, the institutionalization of domestic spot ETFs, changes in mNAV after investment, and increases in fully diluted BTC per share. Even if there are tax advantages, if the stock price significantly lags behind the coin's returns, after-tax profits may be lower. This report is published by Bitplanet, a listed company that holds Bitcoin as a financial asset and includes itself as a comparison subject, indicating that there are interests in the selection of the topic and interpretation.

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