Bitcoin Faces the Shadow of the 10/10 Crash, Oil Prices Become a New Threat - Fintech World

The Bitcoin (BTC) market is facing a week that makes traders cautious. This is not only due to the pressure on BTC prices but also because the market is entering the one-year warning of the 10 October 2025 crash or "10/10", one of the largest liquidation events in crypto history.

A year ago, Bitcoin had just reached an all-time high of around US$126,199 on 6 October 2025.

However, just four days later, the market changed drastically.

The announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump regarding an additional 100% tariff on goods from China triggered massive sell-offs.

The effect was not just a price correction for Bitcoin. Trading positions with leverage worth over US$19 billion were liquidated, affecting more than 1.6 million traders.

Now, a year later, Bitcoin is trading around US$85,558, still about 32% below that record high.

The threat facing the market this time is also different. It is not the trade war that is the main concern, but rather oil prices, diesel supply, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

What Happened During the 10/10 Bitcoin Crash?

October 10, 2025, became one of the days that crypto traders find hard to forget.

Four days earlier, Bitcoin had just reached around US$126,200 and set a new all-time high.

Market optimism was very high.

However, conditions changed after Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods and export controls on software.

The crypto market immediately experienced a sell-off.

The problem escalated because many traders were using leverage at that time.

When Bitcoin and other crypto asset prices fell, exchanges automatically closed positions that no longer had sufficient margin.

A wave of liquidations occurred.

Data from Coinglass cited by BeInCrypto shows that the liquidation value reached over US$19 billion.

About US$7 billion was wiped out in just one hour.

More than 1.6 million traders were reported to be affected.

Bitcoin Then Fell to US$58,600

The 10/10 crash turned out not to be the end of the pressure on Bitcoin.

After the event, BTC prices continued to experience pressure for several months.

Bitcoin eventually reached a low of around US$58,600 on 1 July 2026.

This means that from the record of US$126,200 to US$58,600, Bitcoin lost more than half of its value.

Since that low point, Bitcoin has indeed managed to recover significantly.

BTC is now back around US$85,000.

However, with a price of around US$85,558, Bitcoin is still about 32% below its record high in October 2025.

The Threat in October 2026 Now Comes from Oil

If the threat in October 2025 came from the U.S.-China trade war, this year's situation is different.

The market faces risks from energy and geopolitical conflicts.

The U.S. war with Iran has been ongoing for months and continues to affect energy trade in the Gulf region.

There are indeed signs of recovery.

Crude oil flows from the Gulf in September have returned to about 91% of pre-war export levels.

However, the condition of refined fuel products has not fully recovered.

The supply of fuels like diesel has only reached about 60% of pre-war conditions.

This condition is crucial because diesel is a vital component for economic activities.

Trucks, ships, industrial machines, and various logistics systems rely on this fuel.

US Diesel Prices Surge 73%

The impact of supply disruptions is starting to be reflected in prices.

The average price of diesel in the United States reached about US$6.41 per gallon on September 30.

This figure is approximately 73% higher than the same period last year.

The rise in diesel prices can have broader implications beyond just the cost of fueling vehicles.

Nearly the entire goods distribution chain relies on transportation.

If fuel costs rise, companies may pass some of those costs onto consumers through higher product prices.

Ultimately, this situation could exacerbate inflation.

And inflation brings the market back to a very important issue for Bitcoin: Federal Reserve interest rate policy.

Oil Prices Still Above US$100

Even though the Group of Seven (G7) countries have agreed to release 100 million barrels of emergency oil reserves, oil prices remain at high levels.

Brent crude prices are around US$102 per barrel at the beginning of the week.

This situation indicates that concerns about energy supply have not completely dissipated.

The situation is becoming increasingly sensitive due to ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

This strait is one of the most strategic energy trade routes in the world.

Disruptions to tankers can quickly change market expectations regarding oil supply.

As a result, Bitcoin traders are now paying attention not only to BTC charts.

Movements in oil and geopolitical developments in the Middle East are also part of the crypto market analysis.

Why Can Oil Prices Pressure Bitcoin?

The relationship is not direct.

However, the chain of effects is relatively easy to understand.

High oil prices can increase energy and transportation costs.

These costs can then potentially raise inflation.

If inflation is difficult to bring down, the Fed has reasons to maintain high interest rates or even tighten policies again.

High interest rates make bonds and other interest-bearing instruments more attractive.

Conversely, risk assets like Bitcoin may face pressure as investors have alternative investments with more competitive returns.

This is why oil movements have become one of the macro factors increasingly monitored by the crypto market.

Trump Highlights Oil Refinery Issues

Trump himself assesses that the current fuel price issue no longer solely originates from the Strait of Hormuz.

The US President instead highlights refinery conditions as one of the factors driving price increases.

However, the geopolitical situation is still far from stable.

Shortly after this statement, a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was reported to have been attacked and caught fire.

Such incidents show that risks to energy routes can still arise at any time.

Could the 10/10 Crash Happen Again?

The similarity in dates does not mean the market will repeat the same crash.

The conditions of leverage, liquidity, economy, and market structure are different compared to October 2025.

However, the one-year warning of 10/10 serves as a reminder of how quickly the crypto market conditions can change.

Moreover, volatility has increased again at the beginning of October 2026.

Bitcoin is again under pressure towards US$84,000-US$85,000 as oil prices rise and US bond yields move up.

This means macro risks still need to be considered.

Investors should not conclude that Bitcoin will fall just because it enters the same date as last year's crash.

On the contrary, the biggest lesson from 10/10 lies in the risk of excessive leverage when the market faces high uncertainty.

Leverage Becomes the Biggest Lesson from the 10/10 Crash

The October 2025 crash demonstrated how leverage can amplify market downturns.

When too many traders take long positions using borrowed funds, a relatively quick price correction can trigger liquidations.

Liquidations then create additional selling pressure.

This selling pressure drives prices even lower and triggers further liquidations.

This process can develop into a kind of domino effect.

That’s why over $19 billion in positions could be wiped out in a very short time during the 10/10 crash.

This situation serves as an important lesson as the market faces high volatility again in October 2026.

Conclusion

Bitcoin enters a week coinciding with the one-year anniversary of the 10/10 crash, when over $19 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated following Trump’s tariff announcement against China.

The crash occurred just four days after Bitcoin hit an all-time high of around $126,200.

One year later, Bitcoin is around $85,558, still about 32% below that record.

However, the sources of risk in October 2026 are different.

The market now faces oil prices above $100, U.S. diesel prices around $6.41 per gallon, energy supply disruptions, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Rising energy prices could sustain inflationary pressures and ultimately affect the Fed's interest rate policy.

Nevertheless, the coincidence of dates does not mean that the 10/10 crash will necessarily repeat.

That event serves more as a reminder for investors about the dangers of excessive leverage when Bitcoin is in a highly volatile market condition.

This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.

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