Bitcoin: Long-Term Holding Reaches Historic High

According to the latest data published by CoinGlass, Bitcoin has just reached a new on-chain record. This refers to long-term investors or holders who now control 79% of the circulating supply. A first in the history of cryptocurrency! Certainly, this indicator does not guarantee a rise in Bitcoin's price. Nevertheless, it could influence the dynamics of the next crypto market cycle, making it worthy of special attention.

In brief

• The Bitcoin supply held by long-term investors has reached a historic high.
• Only 218,421 BTC aged over two years have been reintroduced into circulation since the beginning of 2026, marking the lowest level observed since 2012.
• This indicator alone is not sufficient to predict the evolution of Bitcoin's price.

79% of Bitcoin's supply is now in the hands of long-term holders

According to the analysis firm CoinGlass, long-term holders (LTH) are defined as addresses that have held their Bitcoins without moving them for at least 155 days. As of July 21, 2026, this supply has reached 16.64 million BTC. This represents about 79% of the 20 million Bitcoins in circulation.

Crypto analysts agree on one point: this level surpasses all previous records, including that of January 2024. This period corresponds to the launch of the first U.S. spot ETFs. To give you a sense of scale, this amount was worth approximately $1.07 trillion in June when Bitcoin was trading around $64,100.

The strategy of LTH is based on a well-known logic:

• In bear markets, they accumulate Bitcoin (primarily targeting tokens sold by the most recent and least resilient investors).
• During bullish phases, they sell, allowing them to realize profits.

The latest data thus confirms a pattern already observed in previous cycles, with one difference: unprecedented intensity. Since the peak of $126,000 in October 2025, LTH have indeed added more than 2 million BTC to their positions, increasing from 14.12 million to 16.3 million. In just one month, their supply has increased by approximately 200,000 BTC.

The most striking figure from this analysis may not be the 79%, but the 218,421 BTC

This refers to the number of Bitcoins that have been dormant for at least two years and were reactivated between January 1 and June 6, 2026. At the same date in 2024, this volume reached 1.18 million BTC. This represents an increase of more than five times.

Analysis: in 2024, the "old hands" of Bitcoin were selling massively. In 2026, they are hardly moving.

The previous record low for reactivation dates back to 2012, with only 70,600 BTC reactivated during the same period. At that time, the price of Bitcoin was less than $10. The fact that the level in 2026 is the lowest since then (while BTC is worth $65,000) reflects a deeply rooted conviction in the flagship crypto asset.

Is a price increase for Bitcoin on the horizon? Opinions vary!

Certainly, the accumulation by long-term investors mentioned in the data generally constitutes a signal of confidence. However, it does not represent an infallible predictive indicator. In reality, the evolution of Bitcoin's price depends on many other external factors.

In this context, crypto analysts outline three possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: The Technical Rebound. The record concentration of supply among LTH combined with reduced liquidity creates conditions for a violent bullish squeeze if a catalyst occurs. This could be an accommodative decision by the Fed, a major institutional announcement, or a reversal of ETF flows. In this case, the lack of available supply would amplify the upward movement, potentially towards new highs.

Scenario 2: The Final Capitulation. Despite the conviction of LTH, a major macroeconomic reversal could force the most resilient holders to liquidate. In this case, the 5.58 million BTC at a loss among LTH could enter the market, creating an unprecedented wave of selling. The price of Bitcoin could then drop to as low as $30,000.

Scenario 3: Prolonged Stagnation. This is the most likely outlook in the short term. LTH continue to accumulate, volumes remain low, ETFs struggle to attract net inflows, and Bitcoin's price oscillates within a narrow range. This "hibernating market" scenario could last for months until a clear catalyst emerges.

One thing is certain: the current record alone is not enough to anticipate the next movement in the crypto market. Changes in the supply held by long-term holders, BTC reserves on exchanges, daily ETF flows... These are all other indicators to closely monitor in the coming days to determine Bitcoin's future trajectory.