Bitcoin Sharp Index Falls to -23, Views on Market Bottom Are Contradictory

The Bitcoin Sharp Index has fallen to a record low of -23, which could indicate seller fatigue and a golden area for accumulation. The decline of this index coincided with the end of bear markets in 2015, 2019, and 2022. Grayscale believes that macroeconomic conditions and Federal Reserve policies play a more significant role in determining the price floor, and if interest rates do not rise, we may have reached the end of the downward trend. Analysts point to a resistance level of $67,000, which, if broken, would pave the way for a rise to $70,000 and $72,000. Conversely, Peter Brandt predicts that Bitcoin will fall to the late $40,000 range before starting a multi-year rally by the end of 2029. To confirm the end of the downward trend, the price must surpass the resistance of $75,000. The Federal Reserve meeting on July 29 is considered a serious test for the crypto market. Interest rates are expected to remain in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%, but the surge in oil prices and concerns about a return of inflation have raised the likelihood of an interest rate increase to 38%.