Bitwise Sees Bitcoin Reaching Gold Valuation

Bitcoin could one day match the market capitalization of gold, estimated at around $30 trillion, according to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise. This scenario would imply a price close to $1.5 million per BTC, but is based on historical comparison rather than a short-term forecast.

In Brief

• According to Matt Hougan from Bitwise, Bitcoin could reach a market capitalization of $30 trillion, comparable to that of gold.
• This scenario would correspond to a theoretical price of around $1.5 million per BTC.
• Bitcoin ETFs could promote institutional adoption and support long-term demand.
• The limited supply of 21 million BTC could increase upward pressure on prices.
• Matt Hougan favors a long-term perspective without setting a date to reach this goal.

Bitwise Compares Bitcoin to Gold After ETF Launch

Matt Hougan bases his reasoning on the trajectory of the gold market since the introduction of its first exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States. When SPDR Gold Shares launched in 2004, the market capitalization of the precious metal was around $2.5 trillion.

More than twenty years later, this value is close to $30 trillion, according to the estimate provided by the head of Bitwise. The arrival of ETFs has made gold more accessible, as investors could gain exposure through a brokerage account without directly buying or storing gold bars.

Hougan sees a comparable situation for Bitcoin. When spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved in the United States in January 2024, the cryptocurrency already represented a market close to $1 trillion. Its market cap then temporarily surpassed $2 trillion.

Matt Hougan stated in a video shared on October 9: I think it could easily do what gold has done, which is reach $30 trillion, giving a rather interesting price target.

This comparison mainly suggests that ETFs could gradually broaden the investor base. It does not guarantee that Bitcoin will replicate gold's past performance.

A $30 Trillion Market Cap Would Mean $1.5 Million per BTC

At the time of the statement, Bitcoin was trading around $83,000, with a market cap close to $1.65 trillion. Reaching $30 trillion would therefore require multiplying its total value by about 18.

With nearly 20 million Bitcoins already in circulation, such a market cap would correspond to a theoretical price of around $1.5 million per unit. This calculation remains slightly lower if using the maximum limit of 21 million BTC, which will not be reached until around 2140.

This amount does not constitute the official target of a Bitwise fund. Hougan has also not announced a specific date for his $30 trillion scenario. He rather recommends evaluating Bitcoin over a long period, potentially up to ten years.

In March 2026, the executive had presented another hypothesis to justify a Bitcoin price of one million dollars. He estimated that the combined market of gold and BTC could reach $121 trillion in ten years if its historical growth continued. Bitcoin would need to capture about 17% to exceed one million dollars.

These projections therefore rely on two conditions: a continued expansion of the global store of value market and an increase in Bitcoin's share.

ETFs Can Reduce Available Market Supply

Bitcoin spot ETFs allow institutional investors, financial advisors, and savers to gain exposure to BTC without managing a digital wallet. This simplicity could support long-term demand, according to Bitwise.

The maximum number of bitcoins remains limited to 21 million, while the issuance of new units decreases with each halving. If ETF purchases sustainably exceed the amount put up for sale by holders, the scarcity of available supply could exert upward pressure on the price.

However, this mechanism does not operate linearly. A price increase may encourage historical investors to sell, while significant outflows from ETFs can reinforce corrections. Institutional demand does not eliminate cycles or volatility.

Bitwise also defends bitcoin's status as a digital store of value. This function remains contested due to its shorter history, significant price fluctuations, and behavior that sometimes resembles that of risky technology assets.

Investor Behavior Remains the Main Risk

Matt Hougan does not consider technical issues to be the primary threat to his scenario. Instead, he cites investor behavior, particularly their difficulty in holding positions during sharp declines.

Bitcoin has already experienced several corrections exceeding 70% throughout its history. The use of leverage can further amplify losses and trigger liquidations before a potential market recovery.

A market capitalization of $30 trillion also assumes that authorities continue to accept bitcoin's integration into the traditional financial system. Stricter regulations, a sustained decline in demand, or BTC's inability to gain market share from gold could invalidate this assumption.

Thus, Bitwise's scenario illustrates the theoretical potential of bitcoin rather than a guaranteed destination. The gap between its current market capitalization and that of gold remains over $28 trillion.