China vs USA: After AI, the Humanoid Robot War is Declared

Washington Hits Hard Against Chinese Robots

After AI, the United States is taking its technological rivalry with China to the field of humanoid robots. On Tuesday, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) banned the import and marketing of new humanoid robots, quadruped robots, autonomous mobile robots, and power inverters manufactured abroad, a measure primarily targeting Chinese manufacturers.

FCC Chairman Brendan Carr stated that he aims to "secure America's critical supply chains" and limit cybersecurity risks. A connected humanoid robot is a mobile sensor capable of filming, listening, and mapping an industrial or military environment. American lawmakers have notably pointed out a pre-installed backdoor called "CloudSail" in Unitree's Go1 robotic dogs, described as a "Trojan horse."

Models already approved are not immediately affected. However, the FCC reserves the right to re-examine or even revoke previously granted authorizations.

Why China Dominates the Humanoid Market

Beijing has denounced protectionism disguised as national security. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning promised that China would take "all necessary measures" to defend its companies. The timing is explosive, just weeks before a summit scheduled in September between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

Washington thus seems determined to combat Chinese dominance in the sector. According to Barclays and Counterpoint Research, 85% of humanoids deployed worldwide in 2025 will be Chinese. Of the approximately 15,000 humanoids shipped globally in 2025, two Chinese players, Unitree and AGIBOT, each delivered over 5,000 units. In contrast, American companies Tesla and Figure AI are limited to a few hundred units at best.

This lead is explained by a difficult-to-replicate cocktail. China has the largest manufacturing base in the world, privileged access to rare earths and magnets, an aggressive state policy, and the ability to lower costs. Unitree's G1 humanoid is offered starting at $4,900, while its robotic dogs have dropped below $2,000.

Currently, 74% of Unitree's humanoid sales are made to universities, research laboratories, and individual developers, most of whom are located in the United States. It is precisely this channel that the ban risks cutting off.

A Colossal Market at Stake for the Next Decade

The financial stakes are staggering. Morgan Stanley estimates that the global humanoid robot market could reach $5 trillion in the long term, while Barclays projects an addressable market of $200 billion by 2035. Analysts at the British bank anticipate up to 24 million humanoids deployed in China by 2035, equivalent to 4% of the country's current workforce.

For the United States, the goal is twofold. First, it aims to avoid the scenario of commercial drones, a market largely captured by the Chinese giant DJI over the past decade. Second, it seeks to rebuild a domestic industry capable of competing in the long term, as Agility Robotics, 1X Technologies, or Figure AI have not yet reached the industrial maturity of their Chinese competitors.

The measure deeply divides the American ecosystem. Peggy Johnson, CEO of Agility Robotics, supports the tightening and defends the GUARD Act, a bill that fuels this strategy. In contrast, several researchers fear a boomerang effect. Eric Jang, former VP of AI at 1X Technologies, describes the approach as a "short-sighted decision."

Indeed, almost all American laboratories working on humanoids today use Unitree hardware due to a lack of accessible domestic alternatives. Worse, the supply chain for magnets and components remains largely dependent on China. Nvidia itself recently unveiled a humanoid reference design using Unitree's chassis, combined with its Blackwell architecture.

What This Means for Investors

For investors, this technological battle reshapes several cards. Publicly traded American manufacturers like Tesla (TSLA) could benefit from a protected domestic market, even if Elon Musk's firm's valuation already rests on high multiples with a P/E ratio of 283. Nvidia (NVDA), which provides the computing brains for many humanoids, remains indispensable regardless of which camp prevails.

Beyond stocks, physical robotics is now establishing itself as a standalone investment theme, at the intersection of artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and critical raw materials. As with generative AI, the coming months will reveal whether the technological fragmentation between Washington and Beijing hinders or accelerates global innovation.