Citigroup Changes Its Stance on Bitcoin, New Target Set Much Higher Than Before

Citi, one of the largest investment banks in the world, has raised its previous 12-month forecast for Bitcoin from $82,000 to $113,000, and for Ethereum from $2,240 to $3,028. In a special note to clients dated September 30, the bank's analysts justify their pivot by citing a gradual return of capital to ETF funds, a revival in the cryptocurrency market, and a favorable macroeconomic backdrop. This is the first increase after three consecutive cuts.

Citigroup Changes Projections for BTC and ETH

Just last autumn, Citi analysts predicted that Bitcoin would rise to $181,000 over the next 12 months. In December, the forecast dropped to $143,000, in March 2026 to $112,000, and on July 1 to $82,000. The last cut occurred at a severe local low. At that time, Bitcoin was priced at around $58,000, the lowest since September 2024. The bank stopped assuming any net inflows into ETFs, although it had expected $10 billion in March. In the worst-case scenario, Citi's team of experts saw a future price of $53,000, while in the most optimistic scenario, it was around $108,000.

The market did not wait for analysts. From the July low, Bitcoin has already regained about 40% of its value and has been holding above the important technical level of $82,000 for over a week, which was Citi's previous target and is also marked by the 50-week moving average (editor's note). Ethereum has increased by 68% in three months and has surpassed the July forecast by a significant margin. The losses of both cryptocurrencies this year have shrunk to 4% and 9%, respectively.

Something Has Changed

A key argument for Citi analysts now is ETFs, or exchange-traded funds with exposure to crypto assets, which allow traditional investors to acquire them simply by buying shares in the respective investment vehicles with dollars. Despite U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recording $5.8 billion in net outflows on July 13, by the end of September, the balance turned positive with $800 million in net inflows. The pace has recently accelerated.

We have previously discussed the reasons for this pivot. To recap: on August 19, the U.S. Treasury Department announced that it would at least double its purchases of long-term bonds, from $2 billion to a minimum of $4 billion per operation, in securities maturing in 10 to 30 years. Following the Treasury's intervention announcement, yields fell, the dollar weakened, and Bitcoin gained as much as 8.7% in a single day. Since then, nearly $4 billion has flowed into Bitcoin ETFs. Citi believes that a weaker dollar has pulled cryptocurrencies out of a months-long stagnation, during which they clearly lagged behind other risk assets.

Congress did not help, but as it turns out, it did not have to. On September 15, the Senate rejected, in a procedural vote, the long-awaited Clarity Act (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act), which was supposed to establish oversight rules for the cryptocurrency market in the U.S. The vote was 49 senators in favor, 50 against, and 60 votes were needed for further work. According to Citi, the failure narrowed the path to legislation but prompted the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to push through its own regulations, which temporarily calmed investors. By the end of September, Bitcoin had gained over 10%.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Without ATH for Twelve Months

Citi experts predict that over the next 12 months, at least $5 billion will flow into investment products with exposure to crypto assets. The funds are expected to flow more slowly than in previous years, but more steadily, as financial advisors and brokerage firms gradually increase Bitcoin's share in clients' portfolios. This is half of what the bank expected in March when it anticipated $10 billion in Bitcoin funds and $2.5 billion in Ethereum funds.

Citi's calculations do not currently foresee a return to historical price records for the major cryptocurrencies. $113,000 is still about 10% less than Bitcoin's historical peak of $126,080 on October 6, 2025. Ethereum at $3,028 would be nearly 40% below its record from August 2025.

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