Claims of Weakened Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Theory

Claims have been made that the four-year cycle theory of Bitcoin (BTC) has weakened. The analysis of changes in the Bitcoin market is being influenced by institutional funds, stablecoin payment networks, and concerns over currency value depreciation. Eric Yakes, a partner at Epoch Ventures, stated in a YouTube interview on the 28th that macroeconomic changes are shaking the existing rules of the Bitcoin market. He noted that the recent decline in Bitcoin has been limited to around 50%, rather than the 70-80% mentioned in past bear markets. Yakes explained that BTC is no longer moving solely as a risky asset, and the market is beginning to view BTC as a counter-cyclical hedge asset in response to currency value depreciation. He did not assert that this trend would continue. Yakes pointed to the combination of the U.S. Treasury and the stablecoin market as a key background, stating that the spread of dollar stablecoins increases demand for short-term U.S. Treasury bonds and expands digital signature-based payment infrastructure. It has also been suggested that if the proportion of stablecoin payments increases, it could lay the groundwork for businesses and users to switch to BTC payments. Yakes believes that if stablecoin issuers increase the proportion of their reserve assets held in BTC, it could give BTC a reserve currency characteristic. The four-year cycle theory is also being reconsidered, with claims that spot ETFs, institutional funds, macro liquidity, and regulatory changes are influencing price movements.

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