CXMT DRAM Capacity Peaks, Prices Surge

Analysis indicates that China's major DRAM manufacturer CXMT has reached a monthly wafer output peak of approximately 240,000 wafers by the end of 2025, with expectations to maintain this level in 2026. Due to U.S. export controls on advanced semiconductor equipment, its capacity for expansion is limited, and substantial increases in production are not expected until at least 2027, depending on the progress of the domestic equipment supply chain. According to Goldman Sachs, CXMT's coverage of domestic DRAM demand is only about 41% in 2026 and approximately 50% in 2028. Data from TrendForce shows that traditional DRAM contract prices are expected to soar by 90%-95% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026, followed by an additional increase of 58%-63% in Q2. Jefferies predicts further increases of 40%-50% and 30%-40% in the third and fourth quarters, respectively. The price increase for server DRAM is even steeper, with Samsung and SK Hynix proposing price hikes of 60%-70% to clients like Microsoft and Google in Q1. S&P Global forecasts that Samsung's traditional DRAM revenue per bit will rise by 116% year-on-year to $0.79 in 2026, while Micron's ASP will increase by 54% to $1.06; Bernstein anticipates that SK Hynix's DRAM gross margin could reach 92.7% in Q4 2026. Multiple forecasts suggest that effective supply relief may not occur until the end of 2027 or even 2028.

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