Five Charts to Understand the Starting Point of the Bitcoin Bull Market in 2026

Multiple indicators are signaling a reversal. How will the next 18-24 months unfold?

Written by: Anthony J. Pompliano, Founder and CEO of ProCap Financial

Compiled by: Saoirse, Foresight News

Over the past year, Bitcoin has disappointed many investors. This highly watched digital asset has fallen over 50% from its all-time high of $125,000. The good news is that the bear market is likely over, and we are entering a new bull market.

The following five charts will give you hope for Bitcoin's return potential over the next 18-24 months.

First, Quinten Francois shows the correlation between Bitcoin mining electricity costs and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Historical trends clearly indicate that both often hit bottom simultaneously.

This weekly Bitcoin chart combines the mining electricity cost band (purple) with the RSI indicator, showing that in 2019, 2022, and 2026, the price retraced to the cost band while the RSI hit bottom. Historically, this signal often marks the beginning of a bull market.

If historical trends repeat, this is a strong signal for the start of a bull market.

Second, Will Clemente points out that the current correlation between Bitcoin and gold has reached an all-time high. This is significant, as the recent commitment by Scott Bessent to expand government fiscal spending has led to a resurgence in bets against currency devaluation.

This Glassnode chart shows the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold, with the correlation peaking in 2026, indicating that both assets are moving in sync and are viewed as hedges against currency devaluation.

I often reiterate a classic viewpoint in the Bitcoin space: there is no price ceiling for Bitcoin, as the root cause lies in the fact that the dollar has no value floor. The U.S. national debt has surpassed $40 trillion, and the government continues to recklessly consume the dollar's purchasing power. Rational thinking makes it clear that this unchecked trend will likely continue.

Third, historically, Bitcoin's price movements have synchronized with the broad money supply M2, but recently there has been a significant divergence: M2 continues to expand while Bitcoin's price has declined. Many have thus abandoned this indicator, but such large divergences have occurred multiple times in history. Whenever the gap narrows again, it is usually Bitcoin's price that catches up, rather than a slowdown in M2 growth.

This weekly chart compares Bitcoin (green) with the M2 broad money supply (orange), showing two rounds of price divergence: after a significant drop in 2022, Bitcoin caught up with M2's rise, and in 2026, Bitcoin again lagged behind money supply growth. Historical patterns suggest Bitcoin will subsequently correct upwards to close the gap.

Fourth, I rarely rely solely on chart patterns to predict the ups and downs of an investment portfolio, but this analysis from R89 Capital is compelling. Bitcoin seems to be starting a rebound from a key consolidation zone, suggesting that the price may rise in the coming weeks or even months.

This is a 4-hour candlestick chart of Bitcoin drawn by R89 Capital, showing a rising channel pattern, which the firm views as a bullish signal, expecting the price to push towards $90,000.

Finally, the core truth of investing in Bitcoin: holding long-term is far more effective than repeatedly timing the market. Jeff John Robert shared a Bloomberg chart and wrote: "The investment logic of Bitcoin is now similar to that of the S&P 500 index, with the majority of returns coming from a few significant rebound trading days. If you sell and miss these upward windows, the investment outcome will be very poor. This Bloomberg chart compares Bitcoin's annual returns including and excluding the top ten trading days of significant gains."

This chart compares Bitcoin's complete annual returns with the returns after excluding the top ten trading days of significant gains, showing that the vast majority of Bitcoin's returns come from a few explosive trading days, and frequent timing trades can easily miss key market movements.

The reasoning is quite simple. This round of Bitcoin's bear market has been shorter and less severe than previous cycles. Don't cling to the past; a new bull market has already arrived. Bitcoin is expected to appreciate significantly from its current price level. However, market volatility will be intense, and such fluctuations are not suitable for investors with weak psychological endurance. Nevertheless, those who fully understand Bitcoin and hold their positions through the volatility are likely to reap substantial rewards.

This content is provided for general informational purposes only and doesn't constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Any events, rewards, online promotions, or related information mentioned herein should not be considered a recommendation, solicitation, or invitation to purchase, sell, trade, or otherwise deal in any crypto assets. Crypto assets are highly volatile and may result in loss. The availability of WEEX services, products, and related events may vary by region. You are responsible for ensuring that your participation is in accordance with applicable local laws and regulations.