Federal Reserve Meeting in September; Forecast of a 25 Basis Point Rate Hike

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will take place on September 15 and 16, 2026. The monetary policy statement will be released on September 16 at 2 PM Eastern Time. The August employment report showed that the U.S. economy added 162,000 new jobs, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. This data may give the Federal Reserve room to continue its contractionary policies and increase concerns about a rate hike and pressure on risky assets. According to FedWatch tool data, there is a 58.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate increase, while the likelihood of it remaining unchanged is estimated at 41.6%. An increase in rates could strengthen the dollar and reduce investors' appetite for risky assets, thereby increasing selling pressure on cryptocurrencies. Conversely, stabilizing the interest rate may alleviate some market concerns. The release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) on September 11 will be the last important data before the Federal Reserve meeting.

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