In-Depth Interview | Fu Peng: I Have No Faith in BTC

Your so-called 'faith' is just an asset to me.

Interview & Article: Zhou Zhou, Foresight News

'I have no faith in BTC.'

'Brother Majie will definitely go bankrupt, and assets will gradually be wiped out; the era of retail investors is over.'

'I don't believe Bitcoin will double again.'

'Bitcoin's four-year cycle is gone.'

'Your so-called 'faith' is just an asset to me.'

'In the next phase, traditional finance and cryptocurrency will have no differences in research strategies.'

'Gold itself is already highly marketized and does not need to go through RWA again.'

'I am optimistic about young people today creating their own hedge funds.'

After six months and two interviews totaling six hours, I heard a wealth of clear and direct judgments during my conversation with Fu Peng.

As one of the earliest economists in China to publicly focus on the cryptocurrency industry, Fu Peng has his own independent understanding of BTC, stablecoins, RWA, and the entire crypto market.

From Lehman Brothers in the UK to Solomon International Investment Group in London, and then to Chief Economist at Northeast Securities and New Fire Group, Fu Peng has experienced different financial market cycles while continuously changing his professional identity.

But he says he has never changed.

In the interview, he repeatedly emphasized not to pay too much attention to those changing titles. For the past thirty years, he has only done one thing.

What is that thing?

In the interview, we discussed Bitcoin, stablecoins, RWA, Polymarket, AI, the current state of the cryptocurrency industry in Hong Kong, and the future of retail investors. Here is the full text of the interview:

01 | The Crypto World is Not What It Used to Be

Joe Zhou: I attended the 2026 Hong Kong FinTech Week the day before yesterday and found that crypto companies account for less than one-tenth of the entire fintech industry. Do you think this situation will change in the future?

Fu Peng: I don't think the proportion of crypto in the entire asset class will change significantly. Because its underlying core technology has already begun to integrate with the traditional financial system.

Joe Zhou: Do you think the four-year cycle of Bitcoin still exists?

Fu Peng: No, it doesn't. That was a product of the previous era. Moreover, in our analytical framework, there is no such thing as a four-year cycle.

Joe Zhou: But it should still have some influence, right?

Fu Peng: You have to believe that when a market is still very small, large holders selling or buying will certainly affect the price.

But when it enters the era of portfolio management, those factors become different. It can't be said that there is no influence at all, but it is no longer sufficient to sway market prices.

Joe Zhou: The volatility will decrease.

Fu Peng: Yes, you are right about that. When institutional forces intervene, volatility will naturally decrease.

Joe Zhou: You previously said that the current crypto world is different from the past.

Fu Peng: This statement will probably make many people uncomfortable. Some will scold, some will think. But those who scold, to put it bluntly, may be gradually eliminated by history in a few years; those who think, I think are good, they will seriously consider it and may find some direction.

Joe Zhou: What do you think the old crypto world looked like, and what will it become in the future?

Fu Peng: Do I still need to imagine what the old crypto world was like?

I just gave you an example, the Hong Kong stocks during Fang Zhanbo's time, wearing vests and shouting orders on-site, right? Exactly the same. The proportion of retail investors was extremely high, speculative trading, high volatility, all characteristics of that era.

*Fang Zhanbo in

For us, this is about adding an investable asset class to asset allocation. This is completely different from the faith-driven "holding" mentality prevalent in the old cryptocurrency circles.

For traditional finance practitioners, Bitcoin does not need to be imbued with some special belief, nor does it necessarily have to be held directly through an on-chain wallet. It is primarily an asset that can be included in an investment portfolio.

When prices rise, one can reduce their holdings; if judgments change, one can adjust their allocation; if better investment opportunities arise, funds can be shifted to other assets.

This logic is not complicated. What matters is not whether you believe in Bitcoin, but how you assess its position within the entire asset portfolio.

Bitcoin can be a belief, but for me, it is primarily an asset.

04｜Why Does BTC Still Drop Despite the Fed's Rate Cuts?

Joe Zhou: From your research perspective, what factors have the greatest relationship with the crypto market? Is it profit-related factors?

Fu Peng: It's simple. If crypto assets become investable assets and are incorporated into the financial framework developed over the past 40 years, as an asset class, they will inevitably experience "resonance," which is the so-called correlation.

The entire framework logic of asset trading will merge with traditional finance.

For crypto assets, the most significant influences are no longer simple supply and demand relationships, nor do we look at how much inventory is available in which address or wallet.

Think back to the early days of the Hong Kong stock market's "great era." At that time, there was no need to study macroeconomics because macroeconomics was not the core variable. The core variable was how many circulating shares there were, how many you held, and how many Fang Zhanbo held. Everyone sat in front of their computers, typing away, sniping at stocks, competing over who had more chips in hand.

The early Chinese stock market was the same. When speculators were gambling, there was no need to study macroeconomics because there were no large financial institutions involved at that time. This was the situation in the early days of the crypto space and crypto assets.

But now it’s different. Look at today’s Hong Kong stocks; do stocks like Alibaba and Tencent still trade in the same way as they did back then? There are certainly still penny stocks, but for large assets, that’s no longer the case.

At this point, you’ll find that macroeconomics and liquidity are becoming important. These factors affect large asset portfolios, which in turn influence specific assets within them.

Today’s crypto assets already exhibit these characteristics. Many people are beginning to notice that AI stocks, Nvidia, and other AI-related assets are resonating with crypto assets. The liquidity squeeze on valuations and traditional analytical paths are starting to affect crypto assets.

That’s the answer.

Joe Zhou: So what is the current macro environment's impact on the crypto market? From a macro perspective, what is the market's condition?

Fu Peng: Since November last year, liquidity has been tightening.

Around November last year, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet shrank to a certain extent. Note that it is "shrinking to a certain extent"; this will lead to a squeeze on liquidity at the quantity (Q) level.

Ordinary people might think that a rate cut in the U.S. should be good for assets, but they overlook that liquidity is not just a matter of interest rates; there’s also the issue of the quantity of money.

When the amount of balance sheet reduction shrinks to a certain extent, it will offset the liquidity abundance brought by rate cuts (P), and overall liquidity will actually tighten. At this point, all valuation-related assets will be the first to feel the squeeze.

This logic has already been validated in traditional assets. It has happened twice in the past six or seven years, and both times it affected crypto assets. So you can see how the market has changed over the past few years.

Joe Zhou: When do you think this cycle will end? The relatively bearish cycle.

Fu Peng: I told you in the first half of the year that it will be at the end of this year.

Think about it: if liquidity gradually becomes the biggest factor affecting the market, then your "timing" must be chosen at that point. The timing must be right.

In Fu Peng's view, understanding today's crypto market cannot just focus on on-chain data, exchange fund flows, and large holder positions.

As Bitcoin gradually becomes an asset that large institutions can incorporate into their portfolios, it will inevitably be influenced by the traditional financial system.

A rate cut does not necessarily mean liquidity is easing, and a drop in interest rates does not mean all assets will rise. The relationship between the quantity of money and the price of funds is becoming an important variable affecting the valuation of crypto assets.

The crypto space is becoming increasingly similar to traditional financial markets. The era of chip-based speculation has not completely disappeared, but for an increasing number of large assets, macroeconomics and liquidity have become unavoidable variables.

05｜In the AI Era, Young People Can Become One-Person Hedge Funds

Joe Zhou: How will AI trading affect the FICC + Crypto market?

Fu Peng: It’s actually the process of AI Trading Agents. It will change the entire structure of investors.

In simple terms, retail investors will be eliminated faster. And one thing is certain: the current generation of post-2000s youth, if they work hard, could quickly become "one-person hedge funds" in the future. Because AI tools have drastically reduced efficiency and costs. In the past, it was difficult for retail investors to become professional institutions; now young people have that hope.

But conversely, another group of people who do not use AI at all will also be quickly eliminated by the market. So it’s a bifurcation.

AI will definitely lead to one result: a group of young people will become one-person hedge funds; at the same time, the financial institutions above will become stronger.

When these financial institutions compete in trading in the future, they will not be competing on "judgment" but on who has more data, who has rarer data, and who has stronger computing power. If you are willing to spend 1 billion to build backend servers, maintain data, and maintain computing power, you will be stronger than other hedge funds.

Did you think the wealth miracle created by the Grand Prize Fund back then was achieved through "judgment"? That was the era of computers.

In the era of algorithmic trading, when you all still didn’t know how to use it, I simply came in— I used computer trading while you were filling out orders manually, and I would definitely make money off you. That was an era.

Joe Zhou: Do you think it will become increasingly monopolized by giants?

Fu Peng: Yes. The final result is that the proportion of retail investors directly participating in the market will significantly decrease. In other words, you must become ultra-low-frequency in asset allocation. If you want to do high-frequency trading, you are doomed. This is a historical trend.

Joe Zhou: After the emergence of AI, will your asset allocation or original business model change?

Fu Peng: There’s no change. We just have one more asset class; there won’t be any changes.

Joe Zhou: What about the research methods?

Fu Peng: That will change. The middle-tier researchers will become meaningless, and even the end-tier trading orders will become meaningless. Your AI Trading Agent has already completed that for you.

Joe Zhou: What about changes for you personally?

Fu Peng: It’s already like that. Don’t just look at me; many old funds in London are cutting staff; the middle tier has already lost its value. We do macro analysis of the industry every day; in the past, it relied on people to grasp it, but now we have 17 AI employees.

Joe Zhou: If you were to give young investors an asset allocation suggestion now, what would you say?

Fu Peng: Wow, what asset allocation do young people need? Isn’t this like a kid coming to ask me, "I have 200,000, how should I allocate my assets?" I’d say, "Just go all in!"

It’s simple; asset allocation must be based on a certain asset scale, and then determined according to your risk preference, expected investment return, etc.

Joe Zhou: Let me give you a user profile: for those of us working in first-tier cities with some assets, how much do you think should be allocated to crypto assets?

Fu Peng: First, pay off your debts, reduce leverage, and maintain your job's cash flow; don’t get replaced by AI. With the remaining money, think about what to invest in. Never swipe credit cards or take small loans to play with high-volatility assets— I can tell you, that’s a super bad idea. Don’t do that.

Joe Zhou: But if that’s the case, the market will be very boring. It will become a super efficient market.

Fu Peng: But the market itself is also a wave of elimination. You have to understand, it’s also a wave of elimination.

06｜What is the Real Value of Crypto? Fu Peng's View on Stablecoins, RWA, and Polymarket

Joe Zhou: I believe something new will come out to make the market less boring.

Fu Peng: Right now, Polymarket, don’t you find it quite interesting? It’s the same (laughs).

Joe Zhou: Will you participate?

Fu Peng: Damn, do I need to participate? When we were in the UK, didn’t we also bet on football? It’s the same. But I’ll tell you, "our bets" and "your bets" are completely different.

Back then, the internet wasn’t that fast; we had walkie-talkies and bought tickets, right at the stadium, and then made time differences— that trading platform had delays, and the odds would update about a minute and a half after a goal. That’s called arbitrage.

Joe Zhou: What do you think about the future market of stablecoins?

Fu Peng: In the end, the proportion of stablecoins will be similar to the diversified foreign exchange reserves of various countries you see now— that is, the currencies used in the financial system.

Stablecoins are just a technical means. You can understand that our financial middle layer, which is the trade layer, transaction layer, and payment layer, is merely transforming from the original financial system and original currency into a stablecoin pegged to various national currencies.

Joe Zhou: Which do you prefer, stablecoins or CBDCs?

Fu Peng: In the end, it will definitely be based on stablecoins.

Joe Zhou: What do you think about RWA?

Fu Peng: Just a tool, it doesn’t matter. You can add anything to it. Just like blockchain, it’s a tool; when applied in finance, it’s a concept. For example, there used to be a lot of documentation in trade; to prevent forgery, blockchain technology can still be applied.

The tools formed at the end are called "assets"; RWA is not an asset, it’s a tool.

Joe Zhou: What do you think about Hong Kong's RWA innovation?

Fu Peng: The most effective RWA right now is actually stablecoins.

Many traditional assets want to squeeze in and use RWA to issue those non-standard, long-tail assets. But the problem is: when you buy these assets, what are the benefits compared to buying other assets?

Joe Zhou: What if we use highly liquid assets like gold for RWA? For example, tokenizing gold?

Fu Peng: It’s meaningless. Gold itself is already a highly marketized and highly competitive asset with sufficient liquidity; there’s no need to go through RWA again.

Technology must find its true application scenarios; don’t think that existing, mature asset scenarios can naturally fit into the RWA shell. What can emerge is often in areas that the existing financial system cannot cover.

07｜Why Join New Fire Now? Digital Assets are Entering the FICC+C Era

Joe Zhou: Why did you choose to join New Fire?

Fu Peng: It's simple. The regulations and technological advancements in 2025 will mark a moment similar to the rise of FICC in the 1980s. After World War II, the first major integration and transformation of finance and technology occurred in the 1980s. The second one should be this time.

In the era of FICC, it represented a transition from tradition to a new world. It was completely ignited. Both sides were moving towards the center, and it just needed someone to break through that last barrier and ignite the fire.

Joe Zhou: What advantages do you think New Fire Group has during this transition?

Fu Peng: I think it’s about choosing the right path.

You see, the first phase was characterized by retail participation. In the early days, we joked that while it couldn't be called "barbaric," it was indeed a rough development. That phase of rough development has already passed. Over the past decade, with the advancement of global regulation and compliance, that phase has ended.

The second aspect is exchanges. Historically, the path of exchanges is no longer as advantageous as what we are doing now in asset management.

Of course, exchanges will eventually flourish and then undergo a major consolidation. I personally believe that signs of major consolidation have already begun to appear. You see traditional exchanges like the NYSE and NASDAQ are already present. The integration and fusion of traditional exchanges have actually started.

Joe Zhou: What do you think about the future of the cryptocurrency industry?

Fu Peng: Look, traditional exchanges are also rapidly iterating and entering the market. Historically, there have been many exchanges that became homogeneous, and in the end, there was a major merger and acquisition, leaving only a few of the largest globally. At the same time, inferior assets gradually disappeared.

It’s exactly the same. Don’t think there’s anything special about the crypto circle; it’s no different from that wave 50 years ago.

Joe Zhou: Would you take a number 9 license in Hong Kong and trade directly?

Fu Peng: I’m getting old. Isn’t there enough talent here? Just bring the young people up. Why should I, at this age, still be on the front lines of the market? Aren’t you afraid of a stroke? At this age, just like Dalio—you need to pass on your experience and everything to the younger generation.

Joe Zhou: Does joining New Fire at this moment signify a significant change in the industry?

Fu Peng: Finance changes with technological advancements.

08｜The Future of China, Hong Kong, and Crypto: A Long Transition

Joe Zhou: What do you think about the development trend of the Chinese economy in the past two years?

Fu Peng: It’s not just China; the general view of the world is quite similar. To sum it up in one sentence: a transition between the old and the new.

Traditional production relationships and industries are facing various problems, while innovative things are currently very popular. The same goes for the domestic situation—if you are working on AI, artificial intelligence, data, computing power, or robotics, you definitely won’t feel that things are bad now. But if you are in real estate or in traditional production relationships and manufacturing, you might feel very competitive and poor.

Which is right and which is wrong? It doesn’t exist. Both coexist.

So now is a stage where "the new is present, and the old is also present." If you stand from a new perspective, you would say, "We have completed structural reforms and are moving forward"; from an old perspective, you would ask, "Who will save me?" (laughs). This contradiction is inevitable.

Actually, the same was true for the United States back then. By 2015 and 2016, it was in this state as well. After the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, the leverage in the financial system had to be removed, and those industries that de-leveraged naturally suffered. Meanwhile, new industries were being born. In 2015 and 2016, the industries that "disruptive innovation" mentioned by Cathie Wood were still in their early stages, and that part was doing well.

Joe Zhou: Is it difficult for China's crypto and financial industry to break through the innovation culture?

Fu Peng: Financial innovation is also a form of innovation, and technological innovation is also a form of innovation.

On the path of innovation, the West tends to proceed without legal frameworks first, and then fill in the gaps afterward, boldly moving forward. In Asia, we need to first confirm that there’s no problem with something, and that someone is willing to take responsibility; only then do we follow suit after others have paved the way.

Joe Zhou: In light of this cultural difference, how can we better promote the development of the crypto industry?

Fu Peng: Who will promote it?

Joe Zhou: Hong Kong.

Fu Peng: Hong Kong is in the middle. It’s simple; you can’t not follow. If you don’t follow, you might be left behind. I have to follow. But I can’t be completely open like the Americans, allowing liberalism to spread first, nor can I.

So Hong Kong is just in the middle. It’s between Eastern and Western civilizations, neither as conservative as the inside nor as open as the outside. Its efficiency is neither as high as the outside nor as low as the inside; it’s just right in the middle.

Joe Zhou: Do you think the domestic market will eventually open up?

Fu Peng: No. I’ve already explained it systematically. The values of Eastern and Western cultures are different, and the paths in innovative practices are completely different. The West is, if there’s no law, you go ahead first and then fill in later; in Asia, I need to first confirm that there’s no problem, and once others have done it, I’ll take it and do it.

Joe Zhou: Do you think the issuance of a stablecoin for the Renminbi will eventually be approved?

Fu Peng: Yes, but it will take a long time. It will definitely be a continuous exploration, watching others step into the pitfalls first, and then we’ll follow along.