JPMorgan: $50 billion entered crypto in 2026, far from the promised record

"One swallow does not make a spring." Fifty billion dollars since January 1st. This is the amount that JPMorgan's strategists estimate has entered crypto in 2026. The figure appears in their note dated Wednesday, October 7th. In January, the bank had announced a year exceeding the record of 2025, close to $130 billion. In April, it noted a meager first quarter at $11 billion. Autumn brings a bit of color back to the curve.

Annualized, the pace reaches $66 billion, compared to $52 billion at the May tally. This is about half the pace of last year. In the meantime, the engine has changed. Key points of this article:

• JPMorgan estimated that fifty billion dollars have been invested in digital assets in 2026, despite much higher initial forecasts.
• The bank expanded its criteria to include cash flows from unlisted companies and state entities, which mechanically inflated the total.

JPMorgan expands the net to count crypto flows

Counting the money entering crypto is not an exact science. Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou's team usually adds up four taps. First, the net subscriptions of crypto funds. Then, the impulse deducted from CME futures (the Chicago Exchange where institutions bet on the future price of bitcoin and ether). Next, venture capital raises. Finally, purchases by miners and listed treasuries.

This time, the bank also includes the treasuries of unlisted companies, private miners, and entities linked to states. This is indicated in the note consulted by The Block. A broader perimeter mechanically inflates the total. Comparison is not reason, and you are warned.

The gap with the promises of winter remains enormous. In January, JPMorgan was counting on a new increase in flows in 2026. It relied on institutional investors and the adoption of the Clarity Act, the U.S. law intended to clarify the status of crypto assets. Nine months later, the counter shows less than 40% of the 2025 record.

ETFs and CME futures regain control in the third quarter

In the first half, most of the money was flowing from two pockets, Strategy's bitcoin purchases and venture capital. ETFs weighed down the counter with heavy outflows in May and June. Since August, the tide has turned.

According to JPMorgan, exchange-traded funds are back in the green for the year. Measured from the crash of October 10, 2025, their cumulative flows remain negative. On the CME, institutional positions in bitcoin have surpassed their previous peak, and those in ether are nearing their October 2025 level.

CTAs are algorithm-driven trend-following funds that buy what is rising and sell what is falling. According to the bank's momentum signals, they are rebuilding buying positions on bitcoin and ether. On offshore platforms, the leverage of perpetual contracts (futures contracts without expiration date) has receded since the crash. It remains above its historical average.

Analysts see the joint return of retail and institutional investors. This could create, according to them, "a positive flow dynamic for the fourth quarter". On paper, the mechanics hold up.

Miners and treasuries: the crypto flows that are stuck

While ETFs are waking up, miners are emptying their coffers. Their net selling balance has reached about $1.8 billion since January, a modest amount on the market scale. Listed companies account for most of the movement. They sell fresh production and sometimes dip into their reserves to finance data centers dedicated to artificial intelligence.

Among corporate treasuries, Strategy has been pulling the cart at the beginning of the year. Listed companies finance their purchases through equity issuance, debt, or preferred shares, these hybrid securities that pay a priority dividend. The cursor is shifting from debt to the latter, with more coupons to serve each quarter, whether bitcoin rises or not. Unlisted treasuries buy little, lacking flexible financing and stomach for volatility.

Venture capital has been doing better since 2024. However, money is concentrating on fewer, larger funding rounds led by established players. For infrastructures with predictable revenues, debt sometimes replaces equity, and tokenization between companies is attracting a growing share of checks. Spaces remain expensive.

A small detail of the calendar, the note was released on Wednesday, October 7th, the day American bitcoin ETFs lost $487.1 million. The week ended with $681.1 million in net outflows, and the ETF balance since January has fallen back to $494.1 million, compared to $1.18 billion seven days earlier.

This content is provided for general informational purposes only and doesn't constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Any events, rewards, online promotions, or related information mentioned herein should not be considered a recommendation, solicitation, or invitation to purchase, sell, trade, or otherwise deal in any crypto assets. Crypto assets are highly volatile and may result in loss. The availability of WEEX services, products, and related events may vary by region. You are responsible for ensuring that your participation is in accordance with applicable local laws and regulations.