Polymarket Prepares to Catch Up with Kalshi as Market Activity Slows

Original | Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina )

Author | Asher ( @Asher_0210 )

After the World Cup, other popular sports events are mostly in their off-season, leading to a decline in trading enthusiasm on Polymarket. Recently, the platform has undergone a series of intensive adjustments in management, market direction, and promotional strategies in preparation for upcoming popular sports events and the U.S. midterm elections in November.

In terms of personnel, Travis VanderZanden, founder of the shared electric scooter company Bird and former executives of Uber and Lyft, has joined Polymarket as Chief Growth Officer, overseeing the company's marketing system. Meanwhile, Polymarket has also brought in several executives from institutions such as Robinhood, Coinbase, Nasdaq, and the FBI, covering positions in compliance, regulation, investigation, and risk management.

Additionally, Polymarket continues to make efforts to re-enter the U.S. market, with a series of upcoming sports events and political events expected to further boost trading activity in its U.S. operations.

One Year After Re-entering the U.S., Polymarket US Enters Growth Phase

From Acquiring a Licensed Exchange to Launching a Web Version, Polymarket US Accelerates Its Implementation

In 2022, Polymarket reached a settlement with the CFTC over unregistered derivatives trading and exited the U.S. market.

By July 2025, Polymarket acquired the CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse QCEX for $112 million, paving the way for its return to the U.S. Subsequently, QCX LLC operated under the name Polymarket US and received a revised designation order from the CFTC in November of that year, further enhancing its foundation for conducting regulated trading in the U.S.

In December of the same year, Polymarket US began opening to users on the waiting list; in May of this year, Polymarket US officially opened to U.S. iOS users. As of yesterday, community members reported that Polymarket US has launched a web version, and channels available to U.S. users continue to expand.

Polymarket US Trading Volume Continues to Grow, Gradually Approaching Polymarket International

In May of this year, as the U.S. user entry gradually opened, the trading volume of Polymarket US began to increase significantly.

According to Dune data, the trading volume of Polymarket US in May was $1.769 billion, while Polymarket International's trading volume during the same period was $7.077 billion, with the U.S. trading volume accounting for about 25% of International's. By June, Polymarket US's trading volume surged to $4.041 billion, more than doubling from May, while International's trading volume was $10.773 billion, raising the ratio to about 38%.

In July, this gap further narrowed. Polymarket US's monthly trading volume reached approximately $5 billion, setting a new record, while International's trading volume in July was only $8.044 billion, with US trading volume equivalent to 62% of International's, compared to just 25% two months prior.

As user entry increases, trading scale continues to rise. Moving forward, Polymarket not only needs to further acquire U.S. users but also faces a series of more specific issues related to marketing, compliance, and risk management. Therefore, growth, marketing, compliance, and risk control have become the primary focus areas of this round of team adjustments.

Simultaneous Growth and Compliance Hiring, but First Addressing Previous Marketing Issues

After Travis VanderZanden took over the marketing business, his first task was to address the promotional controversies left behind.

Previously, an investigation by The Wall Street Journal found that Polymarket had allowed content creators to showcase simulated trading through promotional partners. Some videos used website interfaces highly similar to the real Polymarket, leading viewers to mistakenly believe that creators were engaging in real trading and making profits. The related investigation indicated that approximately $1.9 million in bets displayed in over 1,100 related videos were all simulated trades. Subsequently, the CFTC launched an investigation into Polymarket's marketing practices.

Polymarket then began to rectify its marketing system, including restructuring the marketing department, updating promotional partner rules, and training employees accordingly. The company also hired consulting firm AlixPartners to review content published by partners to ensure compliance with new promotional standards.

Thus, VanderZanden's role at Polymarket is not merely to continue expanding the user base. He is taking over a marketing system that is still undergoing adjustments. Polymarket US is currently continuing to expand user entry, and trading volume is in a growth phase. With an increase in sports events and political occurrences, the platform hopes to further attract U.S. users and enhance trading activity, but the previous regulatory investigation also means that some previously aggressive promotional methods are now difficult to continue.

The Real Test Comes in Autumn, Polymarket Must Catch Up with Kalshi

In the U.S. prediction market, Kalshi remains significantly ahead of Polymarket US. In July, Kalshi's monthly trading volume was approximately $37.7 billion, while Polymarket US was about $5 billion, and Polymarket International's trading volume during the same period was around $8 billion—totaling about $13 billion for the two platforms, less than one-third of Kalshi's. Moreover, Kalshi's business is almost entirely concentrated in the U.S. market.

This gap is also reflected in capital market valuations. At the end of June, Kalshi was negotiating a new round of financing, targeting a valuation of about $40 billion; just a month prior, the company had completed a $1 billion financing round, with a valuation of $22 billion at that time. In contrast, Polymarket's valuation in October 2025 is expected to be around $9 billion, and after completing about $1 billion in financing in April this year, its valuation rose to $15 billion, and it began seeking a new round of financing of about $1 billion in August, targeting a valuation exceeding $20 billion.

After September, a series of popular sports events and the U.S. midterm elections will follow. The U.S. compliant prediction market is the foundation of Kalshi's existence and is also becoming Polymarket's most important growth engine. For Polymarket, the next few months will be a critical window for further expanding trading volume in the U.S., and the effectiveness of this round of team adjustments will soon be put to the test.

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