Probability of Trump Pardon for SBF Drops Below 1% Before July 31

The Polymarket page shows that the betting market probability for "Trump pardoning SBF before July 31" has dropped to below 1%, with a current trading volume of approximately $836,000. Currently, the market has not opened predictions for other expiration dates. According to market rules, if Sam Bankman-Fried receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or stay of execution from Trump before 11:59 PM on August 1, 2026, the market will settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No". If Trump is objectively unable to issue a federal pardon within this timeframe, the market may settle immediately as "No". The settlement will primarily rely on official information from the U.S. government, with widespread reporting from credible media also serving as a reference. The U.S. Senate previously voted against granting a pardon to SBF, stating that he should not receive a pardon or commutation "under any circumstances."

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