Record High for the World Cup: $5.7 Billion in Bets on Kalshi and Polymarket

The World Cup final was also played on predictive markets. While Spain defeated Argentina 1-0 after extra time, Kalshi and Polymarket together recorded approximately $5.69 billion in volume on the outcome of the match. Including the 103 other matches of the tournament and markets on individual awards, analysts cited by the New York Times describe this World Cup as "the largest betting event in history".

Key Points {#h-key-points}

• The final generated $5.69 billion in volume on Kalshi and Polymarket.
• This volume does not necessarily correspond to as much money deposited.
• Polymarket settles its international markets in USDC on Polygon.
• Meta, Gemini, DraftKings, and FanDuel are developing competing offerings.
• The CFTC is facing nine U.S. states over industry regulation.

The figure should be interpreted with caution. The $5.69 billion represents the cumulative volume of transactions on markets related to the final, not necessarily the net amount wagered by users. The same position can be traded multiple times before the market closes.

However, the performance remains spectacular. In February, Kalshi co-founder Tarek Mansour announced over a billion dollars in volume during the single Sunday of the Super Bowl. Thus, the World Cup final has taken predictive markets to another dimension.

And part of this trading has gone through crypto infrastructures. On the international platform Polymarket, positions are denominated in USDC and recorded on Polygon. Kalshi operates as a centralized exchange for event contracts under the supervision of the CFTC.

Investors from Silicon Valley and Wall Street have heavily financed this growth. Kalshi raised a billion dollars in May 2026 during a round led by Coatue, bringing its valuation to $22 billion. Polymarket, for its part, secured a commitment that could reach $2 billion from Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange.

The CFTC is facing nine U.S. states {#h-the-cftc-faces-nine-us-states}

Given the strong figures, competition is organizing. Meta is developing an app called Arena, which is expected to initially use virtual points rather than real money. Gemini is already offering event contracts in the U.S. thanks to the federal DCM license obtained by its subsidiary Gemini Titan. DraftKings and FanDuel have also invested in this new market.

This growth, however, fuels a regulatory battle. Several states believe that the sports contracts offered by Kalshi and Polymarket fall under gambling and must comply with their licenses and local rules.

The platforms argue that these are derivative products under the exclusive jurisdiction of the CFTC. The federal regulator has adopted this argument and initiated proceedings against nine states, including New York, Illinois, and Kentucky, to prevent them from applying their gambling legislation to federally registered markets.

After the World Cup record, the midterm elections are already the next big event on the calendar. But the growth of the sector will depend as much on the courts as on user appetite. As for the FIFA World Cup, see you in Spain in four years.

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