QCP: Stagflation expectations rise, BTC shows relative resilience

According to QCP Capital analysis, under the geopolitical shock triggered by the Iran conflict, BTC briefly fell below $63,000 before rebounding to around $70,000, showing relative resilience.

The volatility in the options market has retreated to the mid-50s, with risk reversals still in negative territory, indicating continued demand for downside protection. On a macro level, the stock market is under pressure, U.S. Treasury yields are rising, and expectations for interest rate cuts have been pushed back, reflecting stagflation characteristics in the market. In terms of oil prices, Brent crude briefly surged to $120 before retreating, with the IEA planning to coordinate the release of 300-400 million barrels from strategic reserves. Currently, BTC is more of a liquidity-sensitive macro tool rather than a high-beta risk asset. The market is focused on today's U.S. CPI data, which may determine whether expectations for interest rate cuts can be reignited.

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