Rising Treasury yields and weak stocks may pressure Bitcoin

Bitcoin is trading in the $82,000-$83,000 range following a recent correction, with potential downside pressure due to its correlation with U.S. equities, according to analysis by CryptoQuant contributor nocoffeenobrain. The analyst noted that Bitcoin and the S&P 500 have both weakened recently, and historical patterns suggest that such simultaneous declines often lead to broader downturns in the crypto market. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is approaching its highest level in years, which is diminishing upward momentum for both Bitcoin and equities. Similar trends were observed in late 2018 and from January to April 2025. In late 2018, Treasury yields peaked and subsequently fell, leading to increased pressure on stocks and deeper year-end losses for Bitcoin. In 2025, after a peak in January, Treasury yields also declined, coinciding with increased volatility in both the stock market and Bitcoin in April. The analyst emphasized the importance of monitoring the S&P 500, which has not yet experienced a clear correction in the current market cycle, suggesting that if rising Treasury yields exacerbate a stock market pullback, Bitcoin could face further downside pressure.

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